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#1 roc

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Posted 09 July 2019 - 02:19 PM

I picked this up in comments of the article in a previous post "A Toxic Mess" and thought it would be best to have a separate conversation although they are tightly related.

 

This is the first time I have listened to Dr Read and the discussion is long but covers a lot of ways to communicate and try to address how to have the conversation on climate change and if we can change it.

 

We have to face the reality of climate change.

 

Plan on an hour and a half to view this.

 

[Direct Link]


Edited by roc, 09 July 2019 - 08:01 PM.


#2 roc

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Posted 09 July 2019 - 02:54 PM

An earlier discussion by Dr Rupert

 

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#3 roc

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Posted 10 July 2019 - 09:25 AM

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Massive Forest Restoration Could Greatly Slow Global Warming

The right trees, planted in the right locations, could store 205 gigatons of carbon dioxide

 
2E215059-55C7-417B-8DDD693AA6E416B4_sour
Credit: Getty Images

We have heard for years that planting trees can help save the world from global warming. That mantra was mostly a statement of faith, however. Now the data finally exist to show that if the right species of trees are planted in the right soil types across the planet, the emerging forests could capture 205 gigatons of carbon dioxide in the next 40 to 100 years. That's two thirds of all the CO2 humans have generated since the industrial revolution. "Forest restoration is by far our most powerful planetary solution today," says Tom Crowther, a professor of global ecosystem ecology at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich, and an author of a study published Thursday in Science that generated the eye-opening number.

The study team analyzed almost 80,000 satellite photo measurements of tree cover worldwide and combined them with enormous global databases about soil and climate conditions, evaluating one hectare at a time. The exercise generated a detailed map of how many trees the earth could naturally support—where forests grow now and where they could grow, outside of areas such as deserts and savannahs that support very few or no trees. The team then subtracted existing forests and also urban areas and land used for agriculture. That left 0.9 billion hectares that could be forested but have not been. If those spaces were filled with trees that already flourish nearby, the new growth could store 205 gigatons of carbon by the time the forests mature.

After 40 to 100 years, of course, the storage rate would flatten as forest growth levels off—but the researchers say the 205 gigatons would be maintained as old trees die and new ones grow. There would be "a bank of excess carbon that is no longer in the atmosphere," Crowther says.

maptop.png

mapbottom.pngEarth could naturally support 4.4 billion hectares of forest (colors in top map; gray represents areas such as desert that have no potential). When existing forests, agricultural lands and urban areas are subtracted from potential forest lands, 0.9 billion hectares remain (colors in bottom map) where new forests could grow, pulling 205 billion tons of CO2 out of the atmosphere. Credit: “The Global Tree Restoration Potential.” Jean-Francois Bastin et al. in Science, Vol. 365, issue 6448, July 5, 2019.

The team has also created a planning tool linked to the map that will be open to the public starting July 5. Individuals and organizations can zoom in to any location to see where new forests could be started.

Crowther has not studied other carbon sequestration techniques that have been discussed a lot lately, such as ocean fertilization (growing algae to soak up carbon) or direct air capture (machines that pull CO2 from the atmosphere), but he thinks they would be much more expensive than growing trees. He estimates it might cost the world $300 billion to plant the 0.9 billion hectares. And new forests provide another strong benefit: they restore biodiversity, which is crucial because so many plant and animal species are disappearing. Crowther says he began to study reforestation because he was really looking for ways to stop species loss. Tremendous benefits beyond carbon sequestration "come from biodiversity—providing food, medicines, clean water and all sorts of things for humans," he says.

Pulling all that carbon from the atmosphere could take longer than anticipated, however. Forests might need more like 70 to 100 years to reach full maturity, says Robin Chazdon, an ecologist and evolutionary biologist at the University of Connecticut, who was not involved in the study. Yet she says any replanting should begin as soon as possible because climate change is likely to compromise forests' ability to grow. Higher temperatures increase tree respiration, which causes them stress. And drought will widen, reducing tree growth. Crowther adds that although climate change will allow more trees to grow in northern latitudes, it will also dry out tropical latitudes. Tree loss in the tropics, he says, will outpace gains in the high north.

Chazdon cautions that replanting may not be as simple as it sounds, and she wonders if 0.9 billion new hectares will ever be possible, given competing priorities. More trees consume more water, and this could threaten agriculture or other human activities in dry areas. And local people may not want forests if they need to generate income from the land, say from farming or herding. Some prominent reforestation programs, such as ones in the Philippines, have failed "because there was no local involvement," she says.

The best places to start reforestation are where multiple benefits can readily be gained. In a July 3 Science Advances paper, Chazdon and colleagues identify a series of locations in the tropics that have higher-than-average potential for benefits as well as ease of getting started.

All the new tree work, Chazdon says, signals that "we're entering into the practicality stage" of smart reforestation. "We can bring a lot of interdisciplinary science to bear. I hope there will be more interaction between scientists and politicians, realizing that the tools we now have can guide reforestation that is the most cost-effective, and has multiple benefits and fewer tradeoffs."

 


Edited by roc, 10 July 2019 - 09:39 AM.

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#4 Juthro

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Posted 10 July 2019 - 02:36 PM

While I think we as individuals can, and should do what we can to lessen our impact, or footprint, it seems almost meaningless when you look at some of the big consumers of resources.

 

The air force is flying a handful of C-17's in our area for training, and certification of crew and equipment.   I understand the need to have these planes available, and that their crews need to be well trained.  But when I did the math I found that one C-17 flown for 4 hours will burn more fuel then my subaru will over 300K miles.

 

I'm not saying that the air force should trade in its jets for honda's and subaru's, but I admit that it leaves me feeling a little silly about trying to consolidate my trips into town to save 100 miles a month.

 

 

 

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#5 Alder Logs

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Posted 10 July 2019 - 02:56 PM

I watched the movie, Scarface last night for the first time.  I picked up this quote from the dialog (a young Michelle Pfeiffer -- mmmm) : "Nothing exceeds like excess."  I am afraid we will have to let the military-industrial complex end the way it must.  Good luck to the rest of us, doing what we can.  No one knows the future, and any predictions will likely miss what's really coming.  At least we have that.


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#6 roc

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Posted 10 July 2019 - 07:24 PM

The excess we have became used to is a real delima and there is no easy answer.

The white priveleged rich will pay for their excess while the rest of us cut back and feel the pain and they'll think nothing of it.

 

I used to fly from SLC to ATL for work twice a month and a couple of international from ATL to Schipol a year.

I never did really fly for vacation or leisure but as Juthro points out the fuel consumption is hard to imagine if you look at air travel alone.

I no longer contribute to that mess and my CRV saves me money in my pocket and my wife and I have gone down to one vehicle which can be a pain in the ass at times but I prefer making it easier on the pocket so I could get out of the meat grinder type work I was doing.

 

We still live in excess when it comes to the house and the next step is to sell it and knock off 700 - 800 sq ft we don't need when we get someting else.

 

It's an on going battle but we have to keep trying to reduce our use and waste.


Edited by roc, 10 July 2019 - 07:26 PM.

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#7 roc

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Posted 11 July 2019 - 11:25 AM

Here's a novel thought on using solar and wind power and the clothes smell so good! 

 

high tek.jpg

 

 


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#8 Alder Logs

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Posted 11 July 2019 - 12:20 PM

If I want my clothes to not dry here, I could hang them outside.  I have a line inside, high above the wood stove just outside the loft balcony.  BTW, trees and firewood are solar collectors, and convection is localized wind, and just as outside, is also powered by the sun.  The previous occupants of this cabin had a clothes drier.  I needed the space in this little cabin.  When there is a fire going, the clothes are always dry in the morning.


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#9 hyphaenation

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Posted 11 July 2019 - 12:25 PM

Global Dimming

https://www.dailymot...om/video/xudm8n


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#10 roc

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Posted 11 July 2019 - 01:00 PM

Excellent documentary and every scientist in it faced the same thing in their research - denial until they put all the components together and yet 7 years after the making of this the public has no real clue.



#11 roc

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Posted 11 July 2019 - 01:13 PM

Powell gets nailed on climate change and the financial impact on the USA and the world.

 

This is a clip of 5 minutes of a 3 hour hearing on C-Span.org

 

https://twitter.com/...348649329205248



#12 roc

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Posted 12 July 2019 - 07:24 PM

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Antarctica was warmer one thousand years ago — and life was OK
Remember when polar amplification was the rage? So much for that theory

Antarctica is twice the size of the US or Australia. Buried 2 km deep under domes of snow, it holds 58 meters of global sea level to ransom. The IPCC have been predicting its demise-by-climate-change for a decade or two.

A new paper looks at 60 sites across Antarctica, considering everything from ice, lake and marine cores to peat and seal skins. They were particularly interested in the Medieval Warm Period, and researched back to 600AD.  During medieval times (1000-1200 AD) they estimate Antarctica as a whole was hotter than it is today.  Antarctica was even warmer still  — during the dark ages circa 700AD.

Credit to the paper authors: Sebastian Lüning, Mariusz Gałka, and Fritz Vahrenholt

Feast your eyes on the decidedly not unprecedented modern tiny spike:

luning-antarctica-temp-mwp-lia-2000..gif

….

The little jaggy down after 2000 AD is real. While there was rapid warming across Antarctica from 1950-2000, in the last twenty years, that warming has stalled. Just another 14 million square kilometers that the models didn’t predict.

We already knew the Medieval Warm Period was a global phenomenon, thanks to  hundreds of proxies, and 6,000 boreholes. But this new paper is a great addition.

With an awesome dedication to detail, the team put all the big oceanic and other factors into one big graph. It is nice to see them side by side so we can see the connections between them.

luning-2019-ens-m.gif

Fig. 8. Reconstructions of key drivers of natural climate variability. Southern Annular Mode, SAM, 70 year loess filter (Abram et al., 2014); El Niño-Southern Oscillation, ENSO (Conroy et al., 2008); Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation, IPO, piece-wise linear fit (Vance et al., 2015); Pacific Decadal Oscillation, PDO (MacDonald and Case, 2005); Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, AMO (Mann et al., 2009); solar activity changes (Steinhilber et al., 2012); volcanic eruptions (Sigl et al., 2015).

 

Main drivers of the multi-centennial scale climate variability appear to be the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) which are linked to solar activity changes by nonlinear dynamics. The MCA forms the final part of a long warm phase that dominated the first millennium CE

 

Looking at different parts of Antarctica some parts cooled while other parts warmed. Many of these “sea-sawing” pairs appear to be flexing as a dipole.

lunig-et-al-antarctica-2019.gif

Fig. 4. Temperature development in the Antarctic region during the past 1500 years based on palaeoclimate proxies of selected study sites. 7: Fan Lake (Strother et al., 2015), 25: ODP 1098 (Domack and Mayewski, 1999; Shevenell et al., 2011; Shevenell and Kennett, 2002), 31: Berkner Island (Mulvaney et al., 2002), 45: EPICA Dome C (Masson-Delmotte et al., 2004), 49: Woods Bay (Mezgec et al., 2017), 57: RICE ice core (Bertler et al., 2018), whole Antarctica (Stenni et al., 2017:
composite-plus-scaling CPS reconstruction). Location maps in Figs. 1–3. Those location numbered:

Antarctica-map.gif

Somewhere is all this data are some answers that might help us figure out the climate.

A B S T R A C T
The Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) is a well-recognized climate perturbation in many parts of the world, with a core period of  1000–1200 CE. Here we are mapping the MCA across the Antarctic region based on the analysis of published palaeotemperature proxy data from 60 sites. In addition to the conventionally used ice core data, we are integrating temperature proxy records from marine and terrestrial sediment cores as well as radiocarbon ages of glacier moraines and elephant seal colonies. A generally warm MCA compared to the subsequent Little Ice Age (LIA) was found for the Subantarctic Islands south of the Antarctic Convergence, the Antarctic  Peninsula, Victoria Land and central West Antarctica. A somewhat less clear MCA warm signal was detected for the majority of East Antarctica. MCA cooling occurred in the Ross Ice Shelf region, and probably in the Weddell Sea and on Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf.  Spatial distribution of MCA cooling and warming  follows modern dipole patterns, as reflected by areas of opposing temperature trends. Main drivers of the multi-centennial scale climate variability appear to be the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) which are linked to solar activity changes by nonlinear dynamics.


Edited by roc, 12 July 2019 - 07:29 PM.


#13 Alder Logs

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Posted 14 July 2019 - 09:17 PM

Just heard a report that a stream feeding Cook Inlet in AK was measured to be 82 degrees F.  That would not be a good thing.

 

I use this as a source for environmental news from around the world.  55 minutes each week, whether you agree with him about weather control or not, it's a good source.

 

[Direct Link]


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#14 Juthro

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Posted 15 July 2019 - 02:37 AM

It seems we are at the tip of the whip, and are showing the numbers changing here first.  But don't worry, if this trend keeps up we will all get our turn in the barrel.

 

Ignore it or not, climate change is coming to a town near you.


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#15 roc

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Posted 15 July 2019 - 09:39 AM

I'm trying to resource both current and historical data and do not deny climate change.

 

I just read yesterday about a petrified tree that was excavated from 26 feet underground and the rings reflect a major shift in magnetic poles.

I can't remember the carbon dating but it was 1000's of years ago and changes how things were previous views by the scientific community.

The scary part is knowing it could happen again.

I'll see if I can source the article again.

 

Another thing we need to be aware of is the different views ARE related to a "right" or "left" source making it difficult to digest.


Edited by roc, 15 July 2019 - 09:40 AM.

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#16 Alder Logs

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Posted 15 July 2019 - 10:23 AM

No "scientist" gets to where they are without their own set of biases, and these, the ones they learn in school, are not seen as biases.  We all have our particular tint of glasses.  Things we see and are taught don't stand out in our own minds as biases.  They have become what we see as how things are.

 

"Common sense is the collection of prejudices acquired by age eighteen."

~A. Einstein


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#17 Juthro

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Posted 15 July 2019 - 12:24 PM

I'm trying to resource both current and historical data and do not deny climate change.

 

I just read yesterday about a petrified tree that was excavated from 26 feet underground and the rings reflect a major shift in magnetic poles.

I can't remember the carbon dating but it was 1000's of years ago and changes how things were previous views by the scientific community.

The scary part is knowing it could happen again.

I'll see if I can source the article again.

 

Another thing we need to be aware of is the different views ARE related to a "right" or "left" source making it difficult to digest.

 

And it's worth noting that the poles are behaving unusually, and are on the move right now.

 

https://www.nature.c...586-019-00007-1


Edited by Juthro, 15 July 2019 - 01:55 PM.

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#18 Guy1298

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Posted 15 July 2019 - 12:51 PM

I really like this line from the Bhagavad Gita: "Time I am, destroyer of the worlds, and I have come to engage all people."

 

But, I do think we're complex enough to subscribe to multiple and seemingly contradictory views. Time destroys the world. And human habits and drives on a massive scale destroy it too. What for? I wonder why a baby is born to later accidentally die. Why is this world so dangerous? Why are people so often ignorant of the obvious? Why is that ignorance so deep that it seems to literally manipulate their physical and mental worlds. They are confident with faulty reason, with an insubstantial basis, trusting the untrustworthy. 

 

The same mechanisms that have lead and still lead people to irrationally hate others function in other ways. We never really see. And when we do, we most often see ourselves, isolated from the world at large, wholly engrossed in a landscape of personal emotional insecurity and hunger. 

 

 

... a small rant, I guess. 

 

I already know I'm dying. So, I'm aimed at finding a quiet life for whenever that comes. Being quiet, accepting the present, being open to recognizing and loving others. I'd rather not complicate it anymore. Unfortunately, I can't bear the whole world.


Edited by Guy1298, 15 July 2019 - 12:58 PM.

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#19 roc

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Posted 15 July 2019 - 01:26 PM

Massive kauri log recovered that reflects a massive shift in polar axis.


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#20 Juthro

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Posted 15 July 2019 - 02:09 PM

If I want my clothes to not dry here, I could hang them outside.  I have a line inside, high above the wood stove just outside the loft balcony.  BTW, trees and firewood are solar collectors, and convection is localized wind, and just as outside, is also powered by the sun.  The previous occupants of this cabin had a clothes drier.  I needed the space in this little cabin.  When there is a fire going, the clothes are always dry in the morning.

 

It's pretty much the same here.  We have an electric dryer, but electricity is very expensive here, and we try not to run it if we can at all help it.  We do most of the drying indoors though, on a clothes rack on the upstairs landing overlooking the living room and the wood stove.   We also have a ceiling fan that helps keep the air circulating.  In the depths of winter it is actually quite helpful as it puts some much needed humidity back in the house.

 

Heavy items like towels, and blankets generally still get a trip through the drier, unless we are having very hot and dry weather.  But we have enough to get a full load or two before that needs to happen, and as such we only run the drier once a month or so.


Edited by Juthro, 15 July 2019 - 02:15 PM.





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