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The Chaos Chronicles


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#81 TVCasualty

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Posted 19 February 2021 - 10:01 AM

Well... This is quite the thread. Many thanks to you TV for starting it and adding so much interesting content (And the rest of you as well who have contributed).

 

I remember years ago reading James Gleick's book "Chaos" (it was 1988 a year after it was published).  I immediately started writing Conway's Life and Mandelbroit set programs. This is a fascinating topic with regard to its applications for social interaction.  And not a little terrifying if I may say so.

 

I shall be reading this thread with much interest!  In fact I used all my likes up!   

 

That was the book that got me started on the topic as well.

 

I think that reading Chaos, William Poundstone's book about Game Theory titled The Prisoner's Dilemma, and Eric Hoffer's classic book about mass movements and fanaticism titled The True Believer can really help us understand and navigate the world we now find ourselves in. Or at least better understand why we're usually so screwed and can't seem to evolve past our petty ape-vs-ape Territorial Imperative.

 

37363ea4715d5df42506ec2602632f36.jpg


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#82 FLASHINGROOSTER

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Posted 23 August 2021 - 01:05 PM



#83 TVCasualty

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Posted 23 August 2021 - 03:29 PM


 
Damn, so SA was descending into Portland there for a while (Summer ain't over).

 

I found it interesting that Vice didn't go into the causes, which according to this analysis weren't about inequality, poverty, or racism: Violence in South Africa: an uprising of elites, not of the people

 

And in the article above there's a link to this story about the theft of over a million rounds of ammunition, which is not a typical looter haul, and there was mention in the video about how a lot of the destroyed stuff wasn't actually looted, just destroyed. That's all kind of unusual for looting.

 

 

That said, the unrest isn't really an example of Chaos (capital-C), it's more an example of chaos (small-C), which is more in line with the popular conception of it being equivalent to run-of-the-mill violence and unrest, albeit with really sketchy causes this time. In a way, if the articles I linked are accurate then the violence and arson might have actually been carefully orchestrated and planned, which is rather orderly in its own perverse way even if the goal was something other than order (small-O)



#84 FLASHINGROOSTER

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Posted 24 August 2021 - 01:59 PM

Good analysis. No doubt that country has a long history of conflict

 

I went oh look chaos, and posted it. Mostly a visual response. One often wonders what it looks like, that was somewhat similar to an apocalyptic event according the visuals we see on movies and television. Everything looks broken and fucked up, shit everywhere in the streets.

 

The ammunition thing does make you wonder though.


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#85 TVCasualty

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Posted 06 September 2021 - 02:23 PM

I wasn't sure where to put this.

 

It seems Chaos-related but in a different way than the other examples in this thread. The notion of a "butterfly" flapping its wings and causing something big to happen is about small changes within highly-complex systems leading to unpredictable events at very large scales (e.g., butterflies to hurricanes).

 

But in this case we've apparently built a "butterfly" the size of a 747 and when that mo'fo flaps its wings the U.S. will be in serious shit, and a few months later the world would follow. We've essentially made ourselves unbelievably vulnerable to Murphy's Law to a degree that is frankly mind-blowing in its myopic hubris.

 

You know those old cartoons where a character removes one single bolt or screw from something like a car or a train and removing it makes the whole thing fall apart? Turn out our economy has such a "bolt."

 

I thought that drought or relentless and massive storms might undo us first but it looks like all it's going to take to start the ecological and economic dominoes falling (hard) is either one sufficiently-strong storm (like Ida when it hit the Northeast) or a structural failure within a nearly 60-year old project that is literally holding the Mississippi River in place. For now.

 

It turns out that the Mississippi doesn't want to be where it is anymore, at least not below Baton Rouge. The mouth of the Mississippi has moved many times over the millennia. That's how rivers roll, of course. But we've built ourselves into a corner where it's critical that the river stay where it is. So the U.S. Government is basically at war with the Mississippi. When Man decides to fight Nature it's only a matter of time before Nature kicks our ass. We're an impatient, hasty bunch of apes while nature has all the time in the world, literally.

 

And based on what I've been reading this is something that can happen any given year and we won't have much warning. It WILL happen some day, it's just a matter of when and all it will take is enough rain upstream, which is very concerning now that we're seeing what used to be considered 100 or even 1000-year flood events happening somewhere every year or so. The ORC (Old River Control) almost failed in 1973, and if it had the Mississippi would no longer be flowing by New Orleans. The implications are staggering.

 

 

 

The stakes:

 

So, what happens if the ORCs fails?

 

A 1980 report by a team of scientists at Louisiana State University is a good place to start. Redirecting the bulk of the flow of North America’s mightiest river down the Atchafalaya River would cause the inundation and potential destruction of multiple towns.

 

The biggest city threatened would be Morgan City (population 12,000), which lies at the mouth of the Atchafalaya, near the shores of the Gulf of Mexico. The city’s current levee system is not designed to handle the flood, potentially forcing its permanent abandonment. At least six other small towns along the Atchafalaya would also see their existence threatened. A small piece of good news: The loss of life in such a flood should be low, since the area would receive sufficient warning time to evacuate.

 

The creation of the new river channel would destroy important natural gas and oil pipelines, along with multiple bridges, roads and rail lines. Natural gas supplies Louisiana with 75% of its electricity, and serious interruptions in power could be expected, impacting the oil refineries and major oil import sites lie in the corridor between New Orleans and Baton Rouge, along with hundreds of billions of dollars worth of petrochemical plants, grain elevators and fossil fuel and nuclear power plants.

 

Major gas pipelines, like the Texas Gas Transmission, which moves natural gas across the Atchafalaya to far-flung customers in the Midwest and Northeast, would experience months-long interruptions. Two major oil pipelines that also cross the Atchafalaya carrying refined oil from Gulf Coast refineries to the East Coast could face significant interruptions.

 

The Mississippi’s switch to a new channel down the Atchafalaya would leave so little flow going down the old channel past New Orleans that the final 200-plus mile-long course of the current river will become a saltwater estuary of the Gulf of Mexico. The New Orleans, Metairie, Kenner, and Houma-Bayou Cane-Thibodaux metropolitan areas, which collectively include nearly 1.5 million people, would lose their main source of fresh water.

 

“The biggest complication obviously is fresh water in New Orleans, and all the industry — the petrochemical industry between Baton Rouge and New Orleans — wouldn’t have fresh water on the river anymore,” Keim said. “Salt water would infiltrate into the New Orleans area and they lose their drinking water source, and all the petrochemical plants would have issues with not having fresh water as well for cooling and things like that. There would be some serious issues. The economic impacts would be dramatic in Louisiana.”

...

 

Between Baton Rouge and New Orleans, the Lower Mississippi River has four of the 15 largest ports in America, handling over 60% of all U.S. grain exports to the world on barges moving downriver. Going upriver, those barges transport the petrochemicals, fertilizers, and raw materials essential for the functioning of U.S. industry and agriculture. Hundreds of millions of dollars would be at stake every day, and closure for multiple months could cause a cascade of impacts across the U.S. economy.

 

And there is no substitute for Mississippi barges. A typical 15-barge load towed on the Mississippi River would require 1000 trucks or two 100-car trains to transport and equivalent amount of goods, according to the Army Corps of Engineers. There are simply not enough trucks and trains in the country to make up for the barge capacity that would be lost.

 

And the impacts would radiate outward. The greatest threat of climate change to civilization over the next 40 years is likely to be climate change-amplified extreme droughts and floods simultaneously hitting multiple major global grain-producing “breadbaskets” (covered previously). An interruption in U.S. grain exports due to failure of the ORCS, especially if it occurred during the same year that another major grain-producing nation experiences a serious drought or flood, could cause a frightening global food emergency.

 

The impact might be similar to what was outlined in a “Food System Shock” report issued in 2015 by insurance giant Lloyds of London, with rioting, terrorist attacks, civil war, mass starvation and severe losses to the global economy.

 

 

https://features.wea...ippi-louisiana/

 

 

 

 

This is a long read, but is incredibly well-written and paints a very vivid picture of what's involved, and offers a fascinating historical perspective on the region that is worth reading for that all by itself: https://www.newyorke.../23/atchafalaya


Edited by TVCasualty, 06 September 2021 - 02:27 PM.


#86 TVCasualty

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Posted 20 October 2021 - 10:11 AM

I'm getting a little ahead of the game with this one.

 

This rigid imposition of Order is going to be fascinating to watch when it ultimately unravels, which I would argue is inevitable on several levels:

 

ChinaSocialCredit.jpg

 

 



#87 rockyfungus

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Posted 20 October 2021 - 10:45 AM

Do I need to share this satiric take, think this was prior to social credits.
https://www.dailymot...m/video/x6vtca8
If ya got the time It quickly descends into madness as Dan Harmon do.

Edited by rockyfungus, 20 October 2021 - 12:48 PM.


#88 FLASHINGROOSTER

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Posted 20 October 2021 - 02:37 PM

Has Authoritarian Xi shifted enough chess pieces around to hold power if the people decide to revolt? Considering what happened in Hong Kong I am unsure what to think. I assumed Hong Kong people were able to exist partly outside of the regimes total control of information but I could be wrong. In my mind the way they steam rolled over that situation does not bode well for the mainland citizens.

 

Watching China rise and dominate economically over the last decade or two I came to believe there was a fatal flaw in the system. That being a massive social awakening of the people. Then time rolled on and reduction camps starting popping up so it looks like the goverment is trying to get ahead of that problem of people finding their own way to think.

 

Difficult to take anything serious out of China due to incredible censorship but the average citizens seemed to be okay with the social credit system. Well of course if they are asked on camera by a reporter and the answer could effect their score what would you wager the response would be?

 

The question is has the goverment done enough generational memory conditioning to convince the majority of people that those who are lower on the totem pole are there because of their choices. Its their own fault and they get everything they deserve the filthy low scoring buggers

 

On some level with all this cancelling and doxing for uttering specific words back west, I can't help but wonder if social media has unintentionally started its own capitalist form of a social credit system. The mechanism might be different but the end result seems similar. Get in line or get lost. Here people have created a cottage industry off of cancelling others, gaining fame and fortune by pointing out the perceived socially unacceptable behavior of those other users.



#89 TVCasualty

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Posted 23 October 2021 - 01:23 PM

Has Authoritarian Xi shifted enough chess pieces around to hold power if the people decide to revolt?

 

I think that the social credit system they're trying will accomplish the opposite of what they intend, as arbitrary impositions of Order always eventually end up doing.

 

Once you're in the down-and-out group you'll begin to find companionship and solidarity with others forced to endure the same fate. That will create a social divide that will only grow over time, and eventually a tipping point will be reached that will lead to the polar opposite of peace, social tranquility, and productive obedience; "Hello, fellow Untouchable wallowing in poverty, filth, and shame! Since we've all now got nothing to lose, how about we work together to burn this whole motherfucker down?"

 

Maybe we'll get lucky and they'll be a moderate solar flare that will be enough to erase and fry the data and infrastructure that allow this kind of insanity but not so strong that it crashes the grid and ends it all. Something to cook our satellites and data centers "medium well," not burnt to a crisp.


Edited by TVCasualty, 23 October 2021 - 01:25 PM.





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