Paradox
©
Fisana

Jump to content


Photo
* * * * * 2 votes

The Chaos Chronicles


  • Please log in to reply
97 replies to this topic

#81 TVCasualty

TVCasualty

    Embrace Your Damage

  • Moderator
  • 15,092 posts

Awards Bar:

Posted 19 February 2021 - 10:01 AM

Well... This is quite the thread. Many thanks to you TV for starting it and adding so much interesting content (And the rest of you as well who have contributed).

 

I remember years ago reading James Gleick's book "Chaos" (it was 1988 a year after it was published).  I immediately started writing Conway's Life and Mandelbroit set programs. This is a fascinating topic with regard to its applications for social interaction.  And not a little terrifying if I may say so.

 

I shall be reading this thread with much interest!  In fact I used all my likes up!   

 

That was the book that got me started on the topic as well.

 

I think that reading Chaos, William Poundstone's book about Game Theory titled The Prisoner's Dilemma, and Eric Hoffer's classic book about mass movements and fanaticism titled The True Believer can really help us understand and navigate the world we now find ourselves in. Or at least better understand why we're usually so screwed and can't seem to evolve past our petty ape-vs-ape Territorial Imperative.

 

37363ea4715d5df42506ec2602632f36.jpg


  • SteampunkScientist and FLASHINGROOSTER like this

#82 FLASHINGROOSTER

FLASHINGROOSTER

    Semi-Pro Taco Robot

  • Black VIP
  • 3,378 posts

Awards Bar:

Posted 23 August 2021 - 01:05 PM



#83 TVCasualty

TVCasualty

    Embrace Your Damage

  • Moderator
  • 15,092 posts

Awards Bar:

Posted 23 August 2021 - 03:29 PM


 
Damn, so SA was descending into Portland there for a while (Summer ain't over).

 

I found it interesting that Vice didn't go into the causes, which according to this analysis weren't about inequality, poverty, or racism: Violence in South Africa: an uprising of elites, not of the people

 

And in the article above there's a link to this story about the theft of over a million rounds of ammunition, which is not a typical looter haul, and there was mention in the video about how a lot of the destroyed stuff wasn't actually looted, just destroyed. That's all kind of unusual for looting.

 

 

That said, the unrest isn't really an example of Chaos (capital-C), it's more an example of chaos (small-C), which is more in line with the popular conception of it being equivalent to run-of-the-mill violence and unrest, albeit with really sketchy causes this time. In a way, if the articles I linked are accurate then the violence and arson might have actually been carefully orchestrated and planned, which is rather orderly in its own perverse way even if the goal was something other than order (small-O)



#84 FLASHINGROOSTER

FLASHINGROOSTER

    Semi-Pro Taco Robot

  • Black VIP
  • 3,378 posts

Awards Bar:

Posted 24 August 2021 - 01:59 PM

Good analysis. No doubt that country has a long history of conflict

 

I went oh look chaos, and posted it. Mostly a visual response. One often wonders what it looks like, that was somewhat similar to an apocalyptic event according the visuals we see on movies and television. Everything looks broken and fucked up, shit everywhere in the streets.

 

The ammunition thing does make you wonder though.


  • TVCasualty likes this

#85 TVCasualty

TVCasualty

    Embrace Your Damage

  • Moderator
  • 15,092 posts

Awards Bar:

Posted 06 September 2021 - 02:23 PM

I wasn't sure where to put this.

 

It seems Chaos-related but in a different way than the other examples in this thread. The notion of a "butterfly" flapping its wings and causing something big to happen is about small changes within highly-complex systems leading to unpredictable events at very large scales (e.g., butterflies to hurricanes).

 

But in this case we've apparently built a "butterfly" the size of a 747 and when that mo'fo flaps its wings the U.S. will be in serious shit, and a few months later the world would follow. We've essentially made ourselves unbelievably vulnerable to Murphy's Law to a degree that is frankly mind-blowing in its myopic hubris.

 

You know those old cartoons where a character removes one single bolt or screw from something like a car or a train and removing it makes the whole thing fall apart? Turn out our economy has such a "bolt."

 

I thought that drought or relentless and massive storms might undo us first but it looks like all it's going to take to start the ecological and economic dominoes falling (hard) is either one sufficiently-strong storm (like Ida when it hit the Northeast) or a structural failure within a nearly 60-year old project that is literally holding the Mississippi River in place. For now.

 

It turns out that the Mississippi doesn't want to be where it is anymore, at least not below Baton Rouge. The mouth of the Mississippi has moved many times over the millennia. That's how rivers roll, of course. But we've built ourselves into a corner where it's critical that the river stay where it is. So the U.S. Government is basically at war with the Mississippi. When Man decides to fight Nature it's only a matter of time before Nature kicks our ass. We're an impatient, hasty bunch of apes while nature has all the time in the world, literally.

 

And based on what I've been reading this is something that can happen any given year and we won't have much warning. It WILL happen some day, it's just a matter of when and all it will take is enough rain upstream, which is very concerning now that we're seeing what used to be considered 100 or even 1000-year flood events happening somewhere every year or so. The ORC (Old River Control) almost failed in 1973, and if it had the Mississippi would no longer be flowing by New Orleans. The implications are staggering.

 

 

 

The stakes:

 

So, what happens if the ORCs fails?

 

A 1980 report by a team of scientists at Louisiana State University is a good place to start. Redirecting the bulk of the flow of North America’s mightiest river down the Atchafalaya River would cause the inundation and potential destruction of multiple towns.

 

The biggest city threatened would be Morgan City (population 12,000), which lies at the mouth of the Atchafalaya, near the shores of the Gulf of Mexico. The city’s current levee system is not designed to handle the flood, potentially forcing its permanent abandonment. At least six other small towns along the Atchafalaya would also see their existence threatened. A small piece of good news: The loss of life in such a flood should be low, since the area would receive sufficient warning time to evacuate.

 

The creation of the new river channel would destroy important natural gas and oil pipelines, along with multiple bridges, roads and rail lines. Natural gas supplies Louisiana with 75% of its electricity, and serious interruptions in power could be expected, impacting the oil refineries and major oil import sites lie in the corridor between New Orleans and Baton Rouge, along with hundreds of billions of dollars worth of petrochemical plants, grain elevators and fossil fuel and nuclear power plants.

 

Major gas pipelines, like the Texas Gas Transmission, which moves natural gas across the Atchafalaya to far-flung customers in the Midwest and Northeast, would experience months-long interruptions. Two major oil pipelines that also cross the Atchafalaya carrying refined oil from Gulf Coast refineries to the East Coast could face significant interruptions.

 

The Mississippi’s switch to a new channel down the Atchafalaya would leave so little flow going down the old channel past New Orleans that the final 200-plus mile-long course of the current river will become a saltwater estuary of the Gulf of Mexico. The New Orleans, Metairie, Kenner, and Houma-Bayou Cane-Thibodaux metropolitan areas, which collectively include nearly 1.5 million people, would lose their main source of fresh water.

 

“The biggest complication obviously is fresh water in New Orleans, and all the industry — the petrochemical industry between Baton Rouge and New Orleans — wouldn’t have fresh water on the river anymore,” Keim said. “Salt water would infiltrate into the New Orleans area and they lose their drinking water source, and all the petrochemical plants would have issues with not having fresh water as well for cooling and things like that. There would be some serious issues. The economic impacts would be dramatic in Louisiana.”

...

 

Between Baton Rouge and New Orleans, the Lower Mississippi River has four of the 15 largest ports in America, handling over 60% of all U.S. grain exports to the world on barges moving downriver. Going upriver, those barges transport the petrochemicals, fertilizers, and raw materials essential for the functioning of U.S. industry and agriculture. Hundreds of millions of dollars would be at stake every day, and closure for multiple months could cause a cascade of impacts across the U.S. economy.

 

And there is no substitute for Mississippi barges. A typical 15-barge load towed on the Mississippi River would require 1000 trucks or two 100-car trains to transport and equivalent amount of goods, according to the Army Corps of Engineers. There are simply not enough trucks and trains in the country to make up for the barge capacity that would be lost.

 

And the impacts would radiate outward. The greatest threat of climate change to civilization over the next 40 years is likely to be climate change-amplified extreme droughts and floods simultaneously hitting multiple major global grain-producing “breadbaskets” (covered previously). An interruption in U.S. grain exports due to failure of the ORCS, especially if it occurred during the same year that another major grain-producing nation experiences a serious drought or flood, could cause a frightening global food emergency.

 

The impact might be similar to what was outlined in a “Food System Shock” report issued in 2015 by insurance giant Lloyds of London, with rioting, terrorist attacks, civil war, mass starvation and severe losses to the global economy.

 

 

https://features.wea...ippi-louisiana/

 

 

 

 

This is a long read, but is incredibly well-written and paints a very vivid picture of what's involved, and offers a fascinating historical perspective on the region that is worth reading for that all by itself: https://www.newyorke.../23/atchafalaya


Edited by TVCasualty, 06 September 2021 - 02:27 PM.

  • SteampunkScientist likes this

#86 TVCasualty

TVCasualty

    Embrace Your Damage

  • Moderator
  • 15,092 posts

Awards Bar:

Posted 20 October 2021 - 10:11 AM

I'm getting a little ahead of the game with this one.

 

This rigid imposition of Order is going to be fascinating to watch when it ultimately unravels, which I would argue is inevitable on several levels:

 

ChinaSocialCredit.jpg

 

 


  • SteampunkScientist likes this

#87 rockyfungus

rockyfungus

    Mycotopiate

  • Free Member
  • 2,407 posts

Awards Bar:

Posted 20 October 2021 - 10:45 AM

Do I need to share this satiric take, think this was prior to social credits.
https://www.dailymot...m/video/x6vtca8
If ya got the time It quickly descends into madness as Dan Harmon do.

Edited by rockyfungus, 20 October 2021 - 12:48 PM.


#88 FLASHINGROOSTER

FLASHINGROOSTER

    Semi-Pro Taco Robot

  • Black VIP
  • 3,378 posts

Awards Bar:

Posted 20 October 2021 - 02:37 PM

Has Authoritarian Xi shifted enough chess pieces around to hold power if the people decide to revolt? Considering what happened in Hong Kong I am unsure what to think. I assumed Hong Kong people were able to exist partly outside of the regimes total control of information but I could be wrong. In my mind the way they steam rolled over that situation does not bode well for the mainland citizens.

 

Watching China rise and dominate economically over the last decade or two I came to believe there was a fatal flaw in the system. That being a massive social awakening of the people. Then time rolled on and reduction camps starting popping up so it looks like the goverment is trying to get ahead of that problem of people finding their own way to think.

 

Difficult to take anything serious out of China due to incredible censorship but the average citizens seemed to be okay with the social credit system. Well of course if they are asked on camera by a reporter and the answer could effect their score what would you wager the response would be?

 

The question is has the goverment done enough generational memory conditioning to convince the majority of people that those who are lower on the totem pole are there because of their choices. Its their own fault and they get everything they deserve the filthy low scoring buggers

 

On some level with all this cancelling and doxing for uttering specific words back west, I can't help but wonder if social media has unintentionally started its own capitalist form of a social credit system. The mechanism might be different but the end result seems similar. Get in line or get lost. Here people have created a cottage industry off of cancelling others, gaining fame and fortune by pointing out the perceived socially unacceptable behavior of those other users.



#89 TVCasualty

TVCasualty

    Embrace Your Damage

  • Moderator
  • 15,092 posts

Awards Bar:

Posted 23 October 2021 - 01:23 PM

Has Authoritarian Xi shifted enough chess pieces around to hold power if the people decide to revolt?

 

I think that the social credit system they're trying will accomplish the opposite of what they intend, as arbitrary impositions of Order always eventually end up doing.

 

Once you're in the down-and-out group you'll begin to find companionship and solidarity with others forced to endure the same fate. That will create a social divide that will only grow over time, and eventually a tipping point will be reached that will lead to the polar opposite of peace, social tranquility, and productive obedience; "Hello, fellow Untouchable wallowing in poverty, filth, and shame! Since we've all now got nothing to lose, how about we work together to burn this whole motherfucker down?"

 

Maybe we'll get lucky and they'll be a moderate solar flare that will be enough to erase and fry the data and infrastructure that allow this kind of insanity but not so strong that it crashes the grid and ends it all. Something to cook our satellites and data centers "medium well," not burnt to a crisp.


Edited by TVCasualty, 23 October 2021 - 01:25 PM.


#90 FLASHINGROOSTER

FLASHINGROOSTER

    Semi-Pro Taco Robot

  • Black VIP
  • 3,378 posts

Awards Bar:

Posted 25 October 2021 - 06:29 PM

Somebody was saying the other day the thing with collectivist authoritarianism is it always self destructs. It is a matter of how long that takes and how high the cost on the people that seem to be the wild cards. North Korea seems to be holding on for decades now


Edited by FLASHINGROOSTER, 25 October 2021 - 06:31 PM.


#91 TVCasualty

TVCasualty

    Embrace Your Damage

  • Moderator
  • 15,092 posts

Awards Bar:

Posted 26 October 2021 - 01:17 PM

Next year might be when NK finally cracks and falls apart.

 

There's a likely-severe famine on the way, and China is starting to have some real economic problems of its own and so might not be in a position to continue propping up NK to the degree it has in the past, and both of these things happening at the same time could prove too much for NK to endure.



#92 FLASHINGROOSTER

FLASHINGROOSTER

    Semi-Pro Taco Robot

  • Black VIP
  • 3,378 posts

Awards Bar:

Posted 26 October 2021 - 05:28 PM

Especially considering famine is the number one killer in that country at the moment. It might finally be the straw that broke the camels back. But on the flip side of that famine is also the number one way to control a population, they said there is little time to think of revolution when you are worried about dying in the next few days due to starvation. Really a terrible yet poignant example of how long that process can be drawn out and how deep of a spell can you place on a population. Like some defectors have stated once it becomes generational its hard for the children to even imagine a better life. Controlling language and removing words like Love and Rape from the lexicon so folk can't even sort out their own feelings goes a long way too. If there is no word for revolution then how do you even know that it is possible.

 



#93 TVCasualty

TVCasualty

    Embrace Your Damage

  • Moderator
  • 15,092 posts

Awards Bar:

Posted 28 October 2021 - 11:49 AM

Something about her stories just doesn't seem credible to me (among other people).

 

They're too on the nose and over the top at the same time, plus as far as I'm aware corroborating them has been proving difficult.

 

That's not to say that living in NK would not absolutely suck, but from what I've read her critics have some good points about her anecdotes. I don't have any way of knowing for sure one way or the other and I'm not going to NK on a fact checking trip.

 

Maybe NK really is as demented as she describes, which makes me wonder how it still exists since no matter how cowed a population is by brutal authoritarian leaders, the human mind and body have limits to what they can tolerate in various contexts before all political and cultural cohesion is lost. It could be that NK is an experiment by China (NK's government, not the upcoming famine) to determine just how far that push can go before that happens.


Edited by TVCasualty, 28 October 2021 - 11:50 AM.


#94 FLASHINGROOSTER

FLASHINGROOSTER

    Semi-Pro Taco Robot

  • Black VIP
  • 3,378 posts

Awards Bar:

Posted 28 October 2021 - 01:53 PM

I have pondered that myself and wondered if it has to do with her early education, or for that matter the effects of a decade or so of the most aggressive propaganda on the planet. I would assume there are some residual effects of believing the unbelievable for so long. Like a supreme leader that never poops.

 

Or it could be like most people that tend to tell a lot of stories, those stories can become a little removed from reality in the interest of telling a moving story. Plus she is not hard to look at and makes for a good podcast guest, so the whole fame angle is always something to consider. The pain seems real as can be though so if its fake well she fooled me

 

I think of Pol Pot and how a little country far off the western radar can go by unnoticed. We really only pay attention to NK on a international level when they are launching rockets. Pol operated for quite some time under the shroud of secrecy in Cambodia without any widespread knowledge of the atrocities that were committed for years there

 

I would agree that I had a similar reaction to some of the things she said as well, it is a bit strange to hear it, and the mind does start to wander towards disbelief

 

Time to go check out some other refugees and see if its comparable


Edited by FLASHINGROOSTER, 28 October 2021 - 02:02 PM.

  • TVCasualty likes this

#95 TVCasualty

TVCasualty

    Embrace Your Damage

  • Moderator
  • 15,092 posts

Awards Bar:

Posted 21 December 2021 - 06:59 PM

Conway's Game of Life is now sort of alive. This freaks some people out. A lot (I just find it fascinating... for now).

 

[Direct Link]

 

The people concerned about this tech might have a point, though we probably won't be gathered up and reassembled into new xenobots by giant autonomous Pac-Man shaped older xenobots for at least another 5-7 years.

 

One of the comments posted under it was pretty funny, but also maybe true sooner than we expect: "It's alive!" are the famous last words that eventually led to... "I need your clothes, your boots, and your motorcycle."

 

Butterflies weren't chaotic enough, I guess. We're creating "butterflies" that create their own butterflies now, so the resulting unpredictability might go asymptotic. Singularity here we come! Or ...something.


  • FLASHINGROOSTER likes this

#96 FLASHINGROOSTER

FLASHINGROOSTER

    Semi-Pro Taco Robot

  • Black VIP
  • 3,378 posts

Awards Bar:

Posted 21 December 2021 - 08:33 PM

It makes me wonder if back in the day when the use of fire became more widespread. Did it lead to a time of crazy fires everywhere before we got a handle on it

 

An interesting concept I heard in regards to life in the universe and its ability to maintain came down to a phrase. The great barrier. That being there is this barrier so great that almost all forms of  advanced life will fail to surpass it. Thinking of how perilous our relationship with technology is for our survival at the moment, even something like political strife can lead empires crumbling into dust. There is Climate change, shifting tectonic plates, meteors ect. One could think even bigger to get a concept of the great barrier. Even if we mastered all forms of energy, something as monumental as the extinction of our sun would surely set to eliminate us.

 

AI and the emergence of synthetic life appear to be another one of those great barriers for advanced civilizations.



#97 TVCasualty

TVCasualty

    Embrace Your Damage

  • Moderator
  • 15,092 posts

Awards Bar:

Posted 29 January 2022 - 02:40 PM

 

Nature's Warning Signal


Complex systems like ecological food webs, the brain, and the climate all give off a characteristic signal when disaster is around the corner.

...
The Peter Lake experiment demonstrated a well-known problem with complex systems: They are sensitive beasts. Just as when the Earth periodically plunges into an ice age, or when grasslands turn to desert, fisheries suddenly collapse, or a person slumps into a deep depression, systems can drift toward an invisible edge, where only a small change is needed to touch off a dramatic and often disastrous transformation. But systems that exhibit such “critical transitions” tend to be so complicated and riddled with feedback loops that experts cannot hope to calculate in advance where their tipping points lie—or how much additional tampering they can withstand before snapping irrevocably into a new state.



At Peter Lake, though, Carpenter and his team saw the critical transition coming. Rowing from trap to trap counting wriggling minnows and harvesting other data every day for three summers, the researchers captured the first field evidence of an early-warning signal that is theorized to arise in many complex systems as they drift toward their unknown points of no return.



The signal, a phenomenon called “critical slowing down,” is a lengthening of the time that a system takes to recover from small disturbances, such as a disease that reduces the minnow population, in the vicinity of a critical transition. It occurs because a system’s internal stabilizing forces—whatever they might be—become weaker near the point at which they suddenly propel the system toward a different state.

From: https://www.theatlan...-nature/421836/



At some point, knowing when a natural system is about to reach or has reached its existential Tripping Point might be a literal matter of life and death. And at the very least a better understanding of the dynamics of "critical slowing down" could help us determine where to most effectively allot our time, energy, and resources in the context of sustainability and environmental conservation.
 
So Chaos is fun (surf's up!) and interesting, and may even save our individual or collective ass some day, so long as we're paying close enough attention.

 

 

I think I might have found an example of "critical slowing down" that might prove highly consequential for us all sooner than most people probably expect.

 

Some species of mackerel (esp. Atlantic and Chilean) seem to be experiencing a "critical slowing down" in their population which could suggest that it's on the brink of a collapse.
 

 

 

 

Yet, despite how things look at the water’s edge, scientists say mackerel are undeniably on the decline: a 2021 assessment by Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO) found that the spawning-age stock was at the lowest level ever recorded, prompting a flurry of management measures including a 50 percent quota reduction for commercial harvesters and a catch limit on the recreational fishery—a first for a fishery that once had no maximum catch.

 

For some, these changes have been hard to accept, not least because the behaviour of mackerel belies their downward trajectory: as their numbers shrink, they cluster together more, creating the impression that the fish are as plentiful as ever. In a region where mackerel’s abundance is woven into the fabric of everyday life—a summertime ritual shared within families, a food distributed to Elders in Indigenous communities, a source of bait for fishers supplying their own lobster and crab traps, and the basis of a commercial fishery spread across the four Atlantic provinces and Quebec—the biggest adjustment may be a cultural one. As mackerel populations dwindle, a fish once taken for granted has stepped into a complicated spotlight, with people wondering if its decline can be reversed or if, as other once abundant species like Atlantic cod have done before, mackerel will continue to slip away.

...

 

“I think there was this perception of a limitless abundance, which is weird because we had a lot of lessons that that wasn’t the case, with cod and other species.”

 

Last year, the true limits of that abundance became clear when a biennial DFO assessment put the stock at just 8 percent of what it had been in the 1980s. In response, Canada’s minister of fisheries briefly shut down the spring commercial mackerel fishery, sparking protests at the wharf by fishers, only to open it back up with a reduced quota of 4,000 tonnes—a figure that also stands in stark contrast to the 1980s and ’90s, when the total allowable catch was 200,000 tonnes.

https://thewalrus.ca/mackerel-fish/

 

 

Point being, there are ongoing efforts being undertaken to stop the decline, but the trick will be to implement effective ones (which we'll only know after trying them) before the critical tipping point is crossed. But that point is impossible to determine except in retrospect, too. I guess we didn't learn that lesson with Atlantic cod. Anyway, it seems to me that this should inspire a degree of prudence with regard to the extraction and exploitation of natural resources that we obviously lack. It really should have inspired such well over a century ago, but so it goes.

 

The collapse of the Atlantic mackerel fishery might already be baked-in no matter what we do, which is why we really shouldn't let things get to this point before taking any meaningful action to address earlier signs of trouble (of which there have been plenty).

 

One aspect of the "Butterfly Effect" that is rarely if ever mentioned is that the most likely result of a flap of chaotic wings is that it inspires a lot more butterflies to start flapping, too. The more chaos-spawning wings you got flapping, the higher the chance that one of them will cause the metaphorical hurricane.



#98 TVCasualty

TVCasualty

    Embrace Your Damage

  • Moderator
  • 15,092 posts

Awards Bar:

Posted 31 May 2022 - 11:58 AM

Chaos falsifies Quantum Mechanics?

 

Whoa...

 

If you're into this kind of stuff then this is very, very interesting:

 

[Direct Link]


  • SteampunkScientist likes this




Like Mycotopia? Become a member today!