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Top 5 Items to Have When Shit Hits The Fan


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#21 ElrikEriksson

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Posted 14 March 2020 - 12:41 PM

Death isn't the only adverse outcome of getting sick with this.

Lots more have damage to their heart, kidneys, etc. Damage to the heart and kidneys is more or less permanent.

That's why countries' medical systems being overwhelmed is such a concern.

 

Toilet paper expiring?

Must be flavored toilet paper or something :laugh:


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#22 PJammer24

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Posted 20 March 2020 - 01:00 PM

For the record, I am not saying there is nothing to worry about for everyone... There is a segment of the community who is at great risk. It is just a very small percentage and people are using it for political advantage...

 

40,000 confirmed cases in Italy, one of the hardest hit countries.... population of 60,500,000... Do the math... That's 0.000661 or a tiny fraction of 1% the population infected...



#23 CatsAndBats

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Posted 20 March 2020 - 04:50 PM

cats



#24 Thacan

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Posted 20 March 2020 - 05:21 PM

For the record, I am not saying there is nothing to worry about for everyone... There is a segment of the community who is at great risk. It is just a very small percentage and people are using it for political advantage...

 

40,000 confirmed cases in Italy, one of the hardest hit countries.... population of 60,500,000... Do the math... That's 0.000661 or a tiny fraction of 1% the population infected...

 

 

Given the statistics that we have so far the math says that we will could have a million deaths in the US and 10s of millions worldwide all in a very short time.  Tiny fractions of very big numbers are still big numbers.

 

Italy's death rate is currently over 4,000 with over 600 in the last 24 hours.  They are hauling the dead away in military transports and talking about mass graves.  The US is on a similar trajectory to where Italy was two weeks ago.


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#25 Myc

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Posted 20 March 2020 - 06:41 PM

 


 

Given the statistics that we have so far the math says that we will could have a million deaths in the US and 10s of millions worldwide all in a very short time.  Tiny fractions of very big numbers are still big numbers.

 

Italy's death rate is currently over 4,000 with over 600 in the last 24 hours.  They are hauling the dead away in military transports and talking about mass graves.  The US is on a similar trajectory to where Italy was two weeks ago.

 

Please help an ignorant brother - who does not read the news - with a link to your source(s).

I'm asking sincerely and not in a facetious manner. I have a close friend who has family in Italy and they are in contact daily. This topic has not been discussed and I suspect that it would be a "big deal" if it were so. Not a challenge. Perhaps you know something of which they are not yet aware?


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#26 Juthro

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Posted 20 March 2020 - 07:13 PM

I saw the same type numbers for death rate, and number of dead in the last 24hrs in Italy.  Our local internet is overwhelmed with traffic ATM, and I'm having trouble pulling it back up for a link, but it was a CNN story if you wanted to see it yourself.

 

EDIT: https://www.cnn.com/...intl/index.html


Edited by Juthro, 20 March 2020 - 07:37 PM.

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#27 coorsmikey

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Posted 20 March 2020 - 07:44 PM

Here is a link I picked from Juthro that confirms the same message. I have been watching this site since I was introduced to me and its kind of mind blowing see how the numbers increase exponentially every day. Also take into consideration that people that are NOT showing respiratory symptoms are being told to self quarantine and don't get tested or get seen by anyone.

https://gisanddata.m...423467b48e9ecf6


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#28 CatsAndBats

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Posted 20 March 2020 - 08:56 PM

 

 


 

Given the statistics that we have so far the math says that we will could have a million deaths in the US and 10s of millions worldwide all in a very short time.  Tiny fractions of very big numbers are still big numbers.

 

Italy's death rate is currently over 4,000 with over 600 in the last 24 hours.  They are hauling the dead away in military transports and talking about mass graves.  The US is on a similar trajectory to where Italy was two weeks ago.

 

Please help an ignorant brother - who does not read the news - with a link to your source(s).

I'm asking sincerely and not in a facetious manner. I have a close friend who has family in Italy and they are in contact daily. This topic has not been discussed and I suspect that it would be a "big deal" if it were so. Not a challenge. Perhaps you know something of which they are not yet aware?

 

 

"Between 160 million and 214 million people in the United States could be infected over the course of the epidemic, according to a projection that encompasses the range of the four scenarios. That could last months or even over a year, with infections concentrated in shorter periods, staggered across time in different communities, experts said. As many as 200,000 to 1.7 million people could die."

 

https://www.nytimes....pgtype=Homepage

 

"And, the calculations based on the C.D.C.’s scenarios suggested, 2.4 million to 21 million people in the United States could require hospitalization, potentially crushing the nation’s medical system, which has only about 925,000 staffed hospital beds. Fewer than a tenth of those are for people who are critically ill."

 

This shit is very serious. It's a highly infectious virus, with a long incubation period (SARS and other similar coronaviruses have an incubation period of 2-7 days, as opposed to this novel coronavirus, which has a 7-14 day incubation period). Those two facts alone are bad enough, but paired with the fact that a lot of people are asymptomatic and then compound that with the lack of availability for testing, well that makes it even more ominous.

 

I'm not going to attempt to transfer this text to our site, but it's a deep dive into what could happen if governments act or don't act:

 

https://medium.com/@...ce-be9337092b56

 

 


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#29 Thacan

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Posted 21 March 2020 - 12:24 AM

 

 


 

Given the statistics that we have so far the math says that we will could have a million deaths in the US and 10s of millions worldwide all in a very short time.  Tiny fractions of very big numbers are still big numbers.

 

Italy's death rate is currently over 4,000 with over 600 in the last 24 hours.  They are hauling the dead away in military transports and talking about mass graves.  The US is on a similar trajectory to where Italy was two weeks ago.

 

Please help an ignorant brother - who does not read the news - with a link to your source(s).

I'm asking sincerely and not in a facetious manner. I have a close friend who has family in Italy and they are in contact daily. This topic has not been discussed and I suspect that it would be a "big deal" if it were so. Not a challenge. Perhaps you know something of which they are not yet aware?

 

 

Lots of sources of data out there and I will try to document those better in the future.

 

Similar to what Mikey posted, here is one with live stats that I am watching…

 

[Direct Link]

 

Another that is updated every 2 or 3 hours is here: 

 

https://www.nytimes....virus-maps.html

 

The numbers on the Roylab Stats Youtube channel require a bit of interpretation.  For instance Italy is showing 47,000 cases and 4,000 deaths so that’s almost a 10% rate of death to cases.  According to Dr. Anthony Fauci and other infectious disease experts the fatality rate for this virus is closer to 1% or 2%, so that says to me that Italy is so inundated with fatalities that they aren’t even trying to identify cases anymore.  If you use the 2% fatality rate you can calculate that Italy’s true infection rate is really more like 200,000 people or for the 1% fatality rate there are 400,000 cases.

 

On the other hand you have Germany with 22,000 cases and only 68 deaths at the time I am writing this.  So one thing you can say is that Germany is doing an excellent job of testing and a couple of possibilities for low deaths are: 1) they are doing a great job managing the infections and/or 2) the cases just haven’t run their course.  I think it’s more likely the later because their recovery rate is very small as well.  So lots of infections detected early in Germany and it’s unknown what the outcome for those cases will be yet.  As a note: Germany has socialized medicine, so when this is all over it will be interesting to see how some of those systems compare to ours.

 

My point is that when the numbers don’t look right think about why, that’s what scientists do.

 

One other number that I heard yesterday in an interview with Michael Osterholm is that on average every person infected with Coronavirus-19 will infect 2 to 3 more people.  That makes the transmission rate twice as high as influenza.  So this virus is 10 to 20 times more deadly and twice as easy to get as the flu.  That may not sound like much, but we are seeing the result and why ‘social distancing’ is critical.  These actions are an attempt to keep the US hospitals from being completely overrun in a week or two just like they are today in Italy.

 

What we are seeing today was predicted more than a decade ago.  But unfortunately there are too many science deniers in government and corporate America that prevented proactive measures… and here we all are reacting as best as we can.   

 

Personally I am trying to stay focused and positive, but I know the journey in the next few months will be historically abysmal.  This only becomes apocalyptic if we collectively lose our heads.  I will listen to the medical professional and scientists and follow the numbers.

 

 

Something to have when shit hits the fan: keep your head together, stay focused and take care.


Edited by Thacan, 21 March 2020 - 12:32 AM.

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#30 Myc

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Posted 21 March 2020 - 09:13 AM

Thanks for that. Friend's relatives are in Milan, Italy.

Friend will be over sometime soon and we review these threads together to compare notes. Hoping his family is truly OK. His family reports that the atmosphere is unusual but relaxed. Folks are out on their balconies playing guitar and hanging out - or at least, that is the impression I was given.

 

So back to being prepared:

I was working with an experimental project using brewer's spent grains as a substrate. Oyster mushrooms LOVE this stuff !!!

I derailed my experiment and used my project bags as spawn for 6 more very large bags.

In about 15 - 20 days, I'll have more oysters than I can eat. And the plan is to keep it going by running the spawn operation continuously. 

If things really go off the deep-end, I'll start raising other mushrooms again so as to have further commodities with which to barter for my needs. 'Tis the season to build spawn for outdoor beds. The brewer's spent grains should lend themselves well to this purpose.


Edited by Myc, 21 March 2020 - 09:31 AM.

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#31 Juthro

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Posted 21 March 2020 - 12:25 PM

Wishing your friends family the best, Myc :)

 

I love the idea of growing oysters on spent brewers grain in outdoor beds :)


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#32 Foxdogg

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Posted 24 March 2020 - 02:35 PM

I have been hoarding [useful] junk for decades.  Got that covered.  I have tools.  We have a greenhouse and gardens.  I have a generator that can run power tools.  We have our own water supply. 

 

 

Ha - yep. Useful junk hoarder too. Particularly wires and electric components. This week I made an induction heater for a dynavap using a cigar box, a computer charger, a guitar slide and an amp switch.

 

Dumbbells.

 

Spring/summer is coming after coronavirus. You can tell people coronavirus gave you abs.

I've been slacking off on my workouts in the last few months as I've been busy with other things but if I were locked in my house with nothing but mushroom grows, porn, and dumbbells I'd probably find some time for workouts.

Some :wink:

 

I'm being weird about lifting because there's a nutritional and energy tax to it for my body. I have an olympic set in my garage, but I've been focusing on yoga for the past 2 weeks. Cool to see another lifter here.

 

My property is on a natural spring so I don't have to worry about that. We're composting, got a sourdough starter that we keep fed and we're on about 20lbs of flour. I ordered cannabis seeds, but it will be weeks before I get anything out of those assuming I do a good job. I'd say my list is:

 

1. weed - honestly if anything just to calm my damn anxiety about current affairs

2. alcohol - would have just settled for a few handles of vodka which I guess I can still get. Actually, I should pick up a handle or two of Bulleit, my favorite. Moderation, because this stuff will wear you down.

3. Seeds - want to have a bit more of a fresh garden, not talking self sustaining, but kind of close without getting crazy

4. Fuel - a lot of property and it can't take care of itself.

5. Meat


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#33 GORF

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Posted 24 March 2020 - 06:34 PM

Besides the staples and alcohol(lots of alcohol)
BOOKS
Non-fiction
1880 to 1950 level machining, electronic(vacuum tube)
Motor and generator
Civil engineering texts
Chemical and medical text books
Older the better. Old tech is easy to get going and it has already worked once.

People...
Well, there's the real center of all problems concerning life on this rock
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#34 Juthro

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Posted 30 March 2020 - 01:39 PM

It's been a challenge to stay ahead of shortages.  We were able to source and purchase all of our garden supplies a couple of weeks ago.  Almost every source we used, for everything from soaker hoses to the valves and plumbing for tying them it to the rain barrels is now out stock.   

 

Seeds are starting to become difficult to source now as well.  I'm glad we have so far been able to get everything we need to put our garden in.  I hope that trend continues.

 

 

 


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#35 onediadem

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Posted 30 March 2020 - 11:54 PM

91448395_3186258424727506_91796765685936



#36 Alder Logs

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Posted 31 March 2020 - 10:59 AM

That fungo bat makes six.  Dude's going to go through balls pretty quickly. 


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#37 Alder Logs

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Posted 31 March 2020 - 11:46 AM

Just thought of this:  "Louisville Slasher."


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