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What the Pandemic is Revealing


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#381 Juthro

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Posted 26 July 2021 - 04:14 PM

You are correct
Thanks for catching that. The statistic was over 60% of infections are Delta variant. It has 7 mutations in the spike protein alone.
Isreal reports that vaccine efficacy has fallen from the 70 percent range to just under 50% in preventing hospitalizations with Delta vs Alpha

Just watch as future reports show an ever increasing rate of mutation in that spike protein they "targeted" for a vaccine.

Not a bad way to do it, just the wrong time to do it.

 

Did I miss something, have the Israelis released another report since last Thursday?   'cuz those aren't the numbers that I saw. 

 

My understanding is that the Israelis showed that two doses of Pfizer were currently reported to be 88% effective against hospitalization, and 91% effective against severe illness.

 

https://www.cnbc.com...re-illness.html


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#382 FLASHINGROOSTER

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Posted 27 July 2021 - 06:50 PM

I think you guys are talking two different statistics here? Its even lower than 60% down to 39%. But that is infection rate, the higher numbers are for serious illness or hospitalizations and death. So basically at this particular moment the data from Israel is indicating it wont stop the spread so to speak but will stop serious illness and death quite effectively. They also noted this conflicts with data from the UK

 

From the msnbc article

 

Pfizer and BioNTech’s Covid-19 vaccine is just 39% effective in Israel where the delta variant is the dominant strain, but still provides strong protection against severe illness and hospitalization, according to a new report from the country’s Health Ministry.

 

The efficacy figure, which is based on an unspecified number of people between June 20 and July 17, is down from an earlier estimate of 64% two weeks ago and conflicts with data out of the U.K. that found the shot was 88% effective against symptomatic disease caused by the variant.

 

However, the two-dose vaccine still works very well in preventing people from getting seriously sick, demonstrating 88% effectiveness against hospitalization and 91% effectiveness against severe illness, according to the Israeli data published Thursday.



#383 Juthro

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Posted 27 July 2021 - 08:05 PM

I read the article, and the stats I quoted were in it.   What I am questioning is where this info came from...  I went back and looked, I couldn't find anything that I thought might have been an easy mix up with these numbers in the article.

 

 

Isreal reports that vaccine efficacy has fallen from the 70 percent range to just under 50% in preventing hospitalizations with Delta vs Alpha

 

 

I'm just saying, if you're going to quote information as coming from a source, you need to take a few moments, and make sure what you're posting is accurate.

 

I'll give the benefit of the doubt.   Maybe he got his stats from a source that was inaccurate.  This is why a link to where your source info is coming from is a good idea.   It  also helps to keep people from thinking you're just pulling numbers out of the air to support your argument.

 

EDIT: Piss poor grammer repair


Edited by Juthro, 28 July 2021 - 12:26 AM.

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#384 shiftingshadows

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Posted 27 July 2021 - 11:12 PM

Re: Delta Variant - Podcast. At 8 minutes , 10 seconds, main contents begins, if you want to skip the preliminaries.
Discusses numbers and world wide effects of Delta.

"Osterholm Update: COVID-19, Episode 61: Divided by Delta, July 22, 2021
In this episode, Dr. Osterholm and guest host Cory Anderson discuss the global and national impact of the Delta variant, address misinformation about vaccines, discuss mixed messaging that has challenged public health, and answer a listener question about seasonality."

https://www.cidrap.u...nars/episode-61

who is Dr. Osterholm?:

"Michael T. Osterholm, PhD, MPH
Dr. Osterholm is Regents Professor, McKnight Presidential Endowed Chair in Public Health, the director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP), Distinguished Teaching Professor in the Division of Environmental Health Sciences, School of Public Health, a professor in the Technological Leadership Institute, College of Science and Engineering, and an adjunct professor in the Medical School, all at the University of Minnesota.
In November 2020, Dr. Osterholm was appointed to President-elect Joe Biden's 13-member Transition COVID-19 Advisory Board. From June 2018 through May 2019, he served as a Science Envoy for Health Security on behalf of the US Department of State. He is also on the Board of Regents at Luther College in Decorah, Iowa.
He is the author of the New York Times best-selling 2017 book, Deadliest Enemy: Our War Against Killer Germs, in which he not only details the most pressing infectious disease threats of our day but lays out a nine-point strategy on how to address them, with preventing a global flu pandemic at the top of the list." ... etc. ... from

https://www.cidrap.u...terholm-phd-mph


Edited by shiftingshadows, 27 July 2021 - 11:21 PM.

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#385 FLASHINGROOSTER

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Posted 28 July 2021 - 03:06 PM

Nothing wrong with trying to be accurate right :cool:

 

I  re-read the original post last night and realized what you were getting at there my mistake. I knew you would get it anyway Juthro so I got lazy and left it. I might have been projecting a little of my own thoughts as I had heard something around that 60% mark for preventing infections but could not recall the numbers. I guess I could see where the mistake can get made. But getting the numbers right is important, that is one way misinformation spreads. Our memories poor ability to remember all the facts accurately, so we get a bit of a game of telephone when trying to repeat the information sometimes


Edited by FLASHINGROOSTER, 28 July 2021 - 03:10 PM.

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#386 TVCasualty

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Posted 28 July 2021 - 05:24 PM

They say a picture's worth a thousand words, lol...

 

 

post-102948-0-58926100-1627511005.jpg

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#387 liferider

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Posted 31 July 2021 - 04:31 AM

what is everybody worried about? we are in the safe hands of our governments and capitalistic corporations. you can relax now.


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#388 TVCasualty

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Posted 31 July 2021 - 09:36 AM

Looks like the Delta variant has a R-value of between 5 and 8 (the higher number is based on not doing much to stop it, e.g. no lockdowns or mask mandates, low vaccine uptake, etc.).

 

Alpha was 2.5-3. Some reports have it as high as 4 or 5 (https://www.bbc.com/...health-57431420).  A typical seasonal flu strain is ~1.3, so it makes sense that the flu took last season off thanks to lockdowns, masks, and distancing. Now that many are giving up on those measures and pretending that the pandemic doesn't exist we'll probably end up with the combined COVID/flu nightmare many were worried about last year.

 

It cannot be overstated how bad that news is, and on the cusp of so many "reopenings" with mass-gatherings at concerts and such, plus Sturgis Superspreader v2.0 is right around the corner too.

 

The "Spanish flu" went through a few variants and waves before the especially deadly one struck. COVID may well be the same, since it doesn't give a fuck about how burnt we are on putting up with what it would've taken to truly stop it.

 

At least the GQP is starting to wake up to the fact that their base seems to be in deep shit thanks to Delta (and whatever comes next might be even worse), which is probably why the talking shitheads are suddenly openly in favor of getting vaccinated and are ncouraging their viewers and listeners to as well.

 

It might already be too late though, once the dust settles from COVID in a few years (if it ever does) they're going to have to gerrymander the hell out of Districts even more than they already have to remain electable at all as so many die-hard Trumpublicans will have died hard by then, and dead people can't vote very often.

 

 

At this point we're all stuck on the same runaway train together. We could've worked together to slow it down or stop it, but we didn't and now we all have to ride this shit out wherever it goes. At least there will be a lot fewer reactionary, stridently anti-science "choose your own reality" meatheads around when it's all said and done.

 

 

Anyway, it's not all bad news; I bet that anyone in the market for a used Harley will be able to get screamin' good deals in a few months (or maybe it's "coughin' good deals," or "coffin good deals," even).



#389 Ringo

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Posted 31 July 2021 - 09:54 AM

Maybe it has nothing to do with what mankind does and it's just nature's way of thinning the herd. The more precautions we take, the more severe She makes the virus. And, she will continue to one-up us until She has the numbers where she wants them.

 

It's not polite to fool Mother Nature..... remember Her saying that when we invented margarine? And, look how fucked up things have become since then. I believe that all things in the universe have life and if you think Human Beings are the smartest, toughest or anything else better than a large rock, you and I differ. LOL There are events in motion right this second that will eventually lead to the extinction of mankind on this planet....... just like the dinosaurs.

 

On the other hand, to be honest, we could probably do with a few billion less people on this rock.

 

What we really need is a virus that kills selectively based upon IQ.


Edited by Ringo, 31 July 2021 - 09:57 AM.

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#390 shiftingshadows

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Posted 31 July 2021 - 03:21 PM

Now we are getting beyond political correctness

 

TV: "At this point we're all stuck on the same runaway train together. We could've worked together to slow it down or stop it, but we didn't and now we all have to ride this shit out wherever it goes. At least there will be a lot fewer reactionary, stridently anti-science "choose your own reality" meatheads around when it's all said and done."

 

and meanwhile...

Global Warming continues, and ...

 

Ringo: "There are events in motion right this second that will eventually lead to the extinction of mankind on this planet."

 

Probably technological civilization goes first ie before extinction, there are some rather vulnerable 'pivotal' points.

But first we may get more mass starvation in some areas, and chaos accompanying mass migrations ... it will be ugly.

 

Its a strange time to have been born.



#391 TVCasualty

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Posted 31 July 2021 - 04:05 PM


What we really need is a virus that kills selectively based upon IQ.

 

I'd prefer one that thins out those lacking empathy and compassion.

 

There are a lot of very intelligent psychopaths and assorted douchebags.


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#392 shiftingshadows

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Posted 01 August 2021 - 06:33 AM

I feel the same way, at times..

but strangely

I am then reminded

of the old slogan:

"Kill for Peace".

 

Never-the-less

if the eco system

had a choice or voice,

it would probably be glad

if us folks, were all gone this instant.


Edited by shiftingshadows, 01 August 2021 - 06:36 AM.


#393 TVCasualty

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Posted 01 August 2021 - 10:36 AM

I feel the same way, at times..

but strangely

I am then reminded

of the old slogan:

"Kill for Peace".

 

 

To kill for peace is not necessarily a contradiction (e.g. self-defense) and "peace" is not always the preferred or ideal state of being.



#394 shiftingshadows

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Posted 01 August 2021 - 01:38 PM

True, but as we know that's not the point.

It is from the Vietnam era,

and refers to the spiritual teaching,

that harboring hatred in ones heart

is self destructive.

 

and incidentally often a matter of projection,

and the idea that killing "those lacking empathy and compassion", is a good idea,

reminds me of Groucho Marx's comment:

"I don't want to be a member of any club that will accept me"

 

And for the record:

https://groups.googl...s/c/jUsN1GKp2Hs

[dondoug]

"NEITHER of them came up with this joke. 

Woody Allen has said that he borrowed the line from Grouch Marx. 
However, Groucho actually said in one of his autobiographies that he stole that line from Sigmund Freud! 
I believe it comes from an example in his book: "Jokes and Their Relation to the Unconscious" published in 1905. 
Who knew Freud had a sense of humor... "


Edited by shiftingshadows, 01 August 2021 - 01:40 PM.


#395 shiftingshadows

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Posted 03 August 2021 - 10:13 AM

an edit that makes a point !

 

and not only that ...

 

but a point no one can argue with !


Edited by shiftingshadows, 03 August 2021 - 10:15 AM.


#396 FLASHINGROOSTER

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Posted 03 August 2021 - 02:11 PM

We had one of our first pro restriction protests!

 

Going for broke here, they are going to lift all restrictions and even reduce contact tracing and testing at such large numbers. The vaccine has changed the game. I for one am ready to ride that Indiana Jones mine cart that is the future. Will let ya'll know how it turns out, fingers crossed

 

[Direct Link]

 

Is there a runway train fuck it mentality out there, sure. Although maybe removing restrictions is a thing because they have not been proven to be that effective. Efforts are better placed elsewhere ect

 

Some good Q&A around concerns of removing restrictions.

 

[Direct Link]

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 



#397 darci

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Posted 07 August 2021 - 01:19 AM

Juthro, what you've done here is what's called an "ad hominem attack." 

 

Can you offer a rebuttal of the claims in the videos I linked,

 

Or did you watch any of them?

 

Let's not focus on what > I < say, but rather on what the Nobel Prize-winning inventor of the PCR test (used today to diagnose Covid) says, and what a chief executive at Phizer has to say about the disease, among the other well-credentialed doctors speaking in those videos.  K?

 

I came only as the messenger and I'm wearing a bullet proof vest.

 

Also, "There are lies, damned lies, and statistics."  One could draw another parallel regarding the figures in the famous statement "it's not the vote that counts, but who counts the vote."

 

The medical and scientific fields often talk of immunity while they themselves are riddled with the plague of conflicts of interest.


Edited by darci, 07 August 2021 - 02:10 AM.

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#398 TVCasualty

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Posted 07 August 2021 - 02:41 PM

Juthro, what you've done here is what's called an "ad hominem attack." 

 

Can you offer a rebuttal of the claims in the videos I linked,

 

Or did you watch any of them?

 

Let's not focus on what > I < say, but rather on what the Nobel Prize-winning inventor of the PCR test (used today to diagnose Covid) says, and what a chief executive at Phizer has to say about the disease, among the other well-credentialed doctors speaking in those videos.  K?

 

I came only as the messenger and I'm wearing a bullet proof vest.

 

Also, "There are lies, damned lies, and statistics."  One could draw another parallel regarding the figures in the famous statement "it's not the vote that counts, but who counts the vote."

 

The medical and scientific fields often talk of immunity while they themselves are riddled with the plague of conflicts of interest.

 

What you posted was a classic "Gish Gallop," a meta-fallacy on par with ad hominems. So the fallacy penalties cancel each other out.

 

Though I would grant that you didn't post it as an intentionally eristic technique for rhetorical purposes as is usually case with such Gallops. Some people dig specious rabbit holes on purpose and some people fall into them with the best of intentions.

 

There are certainly numerous rebuttals possible for the many fascinating (and false) claims referenced. But they could have been found by you, too. Did you look?

 

If not, would you like to see a few now? I'm pretty good at that kind of thing.

 

 

 

While I won't speak for Juthro, I suspect that his unusually strident reply was based on being annoyed by the potential for tangible harm caused by posting a wall of questionable content, misinfo, or outright nonsense followed by ”Maybe it's right, maybe it's wrong.  Take it or leave it.  This is this generation's End Times.”

 

That is irresponsible as hell. It gets people killed, literally.

 

Sometimes lots of people; this is not hyperbole. One of the so-called "experts" in your list of videos is directly connected to an estimate of ~330,000 deaths in South Africa in the 90's from AIDS that might have otherwise been averted thanks to his belief that AIDS is caused by poverty and not HIV virus (which informed the public health policy of the SA President at the time). It would seem that factual accuracy is kind of important if such opinions are enacted into policy, at least judging by the massive death toll that tends to result when arrogant ignorance "informs" government policy during a viral epidemic like AIDS or pandemic like COVID-19.

 

 

I wonder what the people who don't believe in the virus or its variants are going to think when Lambda gets here.

 

It makes Delta seem like the "good ol' days" and as far as variants go it might be the Big One that pushes society to an existential tipping point it may not recover from: https://www.biorxiv....8.454085v1.full

 

From the article:

 

The results that the F490S mutation does not affect viral infectivity (Figure 2E) but confers the resistance to the vaccine-induced antisera (Figure 2F) suggest that this mutation has acquired to be resistant to antiviral humoral immunity. On the other hand, the L452Q mutation not only increases viral infectivity (Figure 2E) but also augments the resistance to the vaccine-induced antisera (Figure 2F), suggesting that that this mutation can be critical for the viral dissemination in the human population.

 

 

That's subdued scientist-speak for "we ALL might be in very deep shit here, vaccinated or not."


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#399 Juthro

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Posted 07 August 2021 - 04:21 PM

 

While I won't speak for Juthro, I suspect that his unusually strident reply was based on being annoyed by the potential for tangible harm caused by posting a wall of questionable content, misinfo, or outright nonsense followed by ”Maybe it's right, maybe it's wrong.  Take it or leave it.  This is this generation's End Times.”

 

You got the gist of my feelings pretty well, TV.   I did not remembered the term 'Gish Gallop', though I do however seem to remember some teacher calling this tactic, 'spreading', in an introductory lesson on debate back sometime in the stone age, but I digress.    My less diplomatic self calls it being buried in bull shit, but IMO the concept stays the same.

 

I find it does not entice me into believing that someone is trying to have any kind of meaningful  discussion, but is instead attempting to overwhelm any debate with the sheer volume of crap being presented.  


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#400 TVCasualty

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Posted 07 August 2021 - 06:45 PM

I think the Gish Gallop is a relatively recent phrase. Spreading has been around since the Stone Age, however and is basically the same thing (spreading is more about talking too fast in a live debate while a Gallop is about overwhelming someone with too many points to be able to address, which can work in text as well as live debates).

 

I think we've lost our social cohesion (globally) to the point where we're just passing time until the inevitable arrives.

 

It's ironic that some call this the Information Age. Too bad all the agents of bad-chaos have mucked things up to the point where a place like YouTube sucks because of their capricious overreach in arbitrary moderation and censorship (err I mean "deplatforming") of much info that is at least credible enough to give a fair hearing to, and a place like BitchUte sucks because of their capricious underreach in moderation and lack of censorship of unambiguous bullshit and easily-debunked misinformation that never had any credibility whatsoever, only relying on slick production values thanks to commercially available video editing software combined with our apparently-bottomless well of gullibility for anything shiny or that sounds like something we already believe.

 

 

And in any case even if we grant that everything posted is true then WTF are any of us going to actually do about any of it except be frustrated and anxious about it for a while, then die? I guess we could not give a fuck and be decadent and self-indulgent for a while. then die. Plan B sounds better every passing day. 

 

We could come together and create an alternative way of life, or at least try. Living as sustainably as possible, as an example of what could be. But we won't; I've tried to do just that for almost my entire adult life (anyone need a farm?) and almost everyone is into it and loves the concept and wants to head for the hills, right now. That enthusiasm is then immediately followed by a litany of reasons (excuses, rather) as to why they can't. And those reasons why they can't are also the reasons why they/we so desperately need to. Catch-22. The only times I've seen it work have been with myself and my ex for about 10 years in the woods and a friend and her husband who bailed to Romania. So apparently couples can do it if they're both on the same page, but an intentional community with more than two people in it gets real hard to maintain for long.

 

 

I guess the pandemic and all that surrounds it has revealed that we're pretty much *all* out of our goddamned minds, just in slightly different ways and we impulsively gravitate towards like-minded lunatics and bicker with various groups of other lunatics. The next step is reflexively mistrusting each other (even those in our in-group) and assuming the worst of everyone and keeping them all at arm's length so we can face the horrors of existence all nice and safe and alone, I guess. And why the heck not? It worked out great for Arthur Fleck in Joker. Imagine a world filled with "Jokers." Soon enough we won't have to imagine, if recent antisocial trends continue.

 

Fuck it; I'm gonna eat some mushrooms in a few and watch Suicide Squad as I indulge myself in playing "smoke the ounce" with my new bag (err, I mean The Suicide Squad, the new one).


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