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Recession or Not? Are we in the next great depression?


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#281 MycoChondria

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Posted 01 December 2008 - 03:24 PM

I'm shocked, simply shocked. :eusa_wall:eusa_doh:

#282 eatyualive

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Posted 01 December 2008 - 03:34 PM

i like this last line here.

"Even with indicators in a tailspin, this still is only a very severe recession," he said. "There's lots of gloom, but we don't see doom."

we don't see doom yet...bc this is just the beginning of this mess. depending on your location nation wide you may see it sooner than others do.

on a personal note, its been in this area starting since 06. not sure how it may fair in other locations.

#283 MycoChondria

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Posted 01 December 2008 - 03:48 PM

i like this last line here."Even with indicators in a tailspin, this still is only a very severe recession," he said. "There's lots of gloom, but we don't see doom."


Wonderful...now instead of waking up and being glad we're not in a recession (as we've been misled to believe per the article), now we'll have to change how we greet the dawn of each new day. My new affirmation? "I woke up vertical, WW3 hasn't started, and best of all, we haven't been hit by a "planet-killer" asteroid. Fuck yeah, it's gonna be a great day!" :nana:

#284 eatyualive

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Posted 01 December 2008 - 03:54 PM

Wonderful...now instead of waking up and being glad we're not in a recession (as we've been misled to believe per the article), now we'll have to change how we greet the dawn of each new day. My new affirmation? "I woke up vertical, WW3 hasn't started, and best of all, we haven't been hit by a "planet-killer" asteroid. Fuck yeah, it's gonna be a great day!" :nana:


question now to me is, if we do go into depression. how long will it take for them to inform us?


i think if this scenario were to play out. that it would be far too late for most if they disclose this information in a manner they disclosed the recession info.

#285 MycoChondria

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Posted 01 December 2008 - 04:18 PM

question now to me is, if we do go into depression. how long will it take for them to inform us? i think if this scenario were to play out. that it would be far too late for most if they disclose this information in a manner they disclosed the recession info.


If the economy hasn't bottomed-out by Q3 or Q4 of 2009 (and especially if the 2009 Xmas season is down year-over-year), I think we'll hear talk of a depression by 2010/Q1. This will lead up to the mid-term elections where the economy will dwarf all other issues.

:reb:Jus' my opinion of course :reb:

#286 catdaddy

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Posted 01 December 2008 - 04:59 PM

The really BAD stuff, on a personal basis, will/has begin/begun in the big cities first. Migration -f**k it, HAS begun. Not will, has. Mass unemployment, soaring prices for food and hard goods, MORE jobs lost as the demand for non-essential items falls off.

At some point, the government (who will of course declare a national emergency to feed the people) will no longer be able to do so (except by ruling the farmer's goods public domain). (Remember farmers destroying food rather than accept the government's offer? This time they will have to deny the sale to the government, because only on the "open" {black} market will they make a living. See how THAT goes over!)

This is when the shit will really hit the fan. It will of course have been occurring world wide, and governments will be toppled, or wars against the peeps to suppress uprisings will occur.

This of course will not all happen overnight, nor at the same speed in different locations, but it is, as things appear now, unstoppable. We might be able to slow it down, but events set in motion as long ago as the Woodrow Wilson presidency have made it pretty much inevitable.

Buy food, hard goods, fuel, warm clothing. Guns. Have alternate sources, especially for food and warmth.

Look, if I'm wrong, you'll have some backup goodies. No sweat.

If I'm right, you'll survive longer and better.

But for your own sake, and that of your family and friends- EDUCATE yourself. When you know what's coming, and how to prepare, you'll be better off.

Before you write me off as a doom and gloom fatalist, find out why I speak so often about preparing for the storm. It could mean your life.

Catdaddy
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#287 Lazlo

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Posted 05 December 2008 - 08:47 AM

Uh, oh!

http://www.reuters.c...E4B437520081205

#288 Lazlo

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Posted 07 December 2008 - 11:06 AM

Hey guys, check out this read http://www.forbes.co...05bartlett.html

It's a really good and quick read that compares the recession of today with the Great Depression. On what's being done now and was done then. How what will work and what will not.

#289 Lazlo

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Posted 07 December 2008 - 11:11 AM

If the economy hasn't bottomed-out by Q3 or Q4 of 2009 (and especially if the 2009 Xmas season is down year-over-year), I think we'll hear talk of a depression by 2010/Q1.

Those are my thoughts damn near to point. After running through chart after chart after chart, comparing employment, consumer spending, exc., that's how I came to my 4300/3900 target for the Dow at the end of Q3. If the holiday profits are going to be bad next year, I think we'll be heading much lower, 3200/3000 would be the next support level. Yuck.
dowchart2.jpg
By the way, if you're wondering just what the hell do these charts I keep posting have to do with anything, they show market psychology. Now traders or whoever go back over previous data and charts to try to anticipate what's in for the future. People looks at these technicals and apply them to their trading strategy. That's why the markets end up trading on or around these technical levels. Just like the 7800 level I showed a month or so ago. The market was well aware of that level and tried to defend it. Or if things get really bad, will work against it.

Edited by Hippie3, 18 March 2009 - 07:14 AM.


#290 thafunkyone

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Posted 07 December 2008 - 12:23 PM

Hey folks!

I'm going to throw a little bit of a different viewpoint in the mix. I haven't read the whole thread as its a year long, but I get the gist after hangin out here...

We are relying on our news services for all our information. FOX news, Reuters, AP etc...these people thrive on doom and gloom! They're the Debbie Downers of our world. If they didn't have something bad to talk about what would they talk about? They are just pumping more bad vibes into our heads. I'm NOT saying that we aren't in a recession. I am a guy with a wife and a kid with one income. I know how the economy works. I am also in business, I know how the job market is, how business is, as the business I'm in relies on consumers and small businesses for 100% of our income. I MUST keep up with these things to take care of me and mine. I do NOT rely on the news for my main source of economic struggle. I have a personal network of folks that I deal with in business. I guess the main point of all this is everyone is not struggling, people just need to modify their business plan and their lifestyles to survive in this economy. If you don't modify for economic conditions you WILL fall. Using common sense will keep things afloat. I have modified both my business and my lifestyle and I'm doing fine. I have money put aside. I invest in the 'share cropping' that hip has suggested, we have a local farm coop that I pay 400/year to be a member of. we get more than enough produce to last us all year, and when we can we go help take care of the fields. I do live in a metropolitan area, there is a pop. of approx 600,000 in my area, and these things are available if you look for them.

I'm kind of jumping all over here. The main part of this is: The strong will survive. I am successful in my business. It takes alot of hard work. It doesn't matter WHAT you do in your life, to be successful it will take hard work! You can't be the best business owner, whether it be pig farming or investments or commercial building or real estate or ANYTHING without busting your ass. People tend to limit themselves...I surround myself with successful people that will survive. And I'm not talking about success moneywise. Success takes many forms. I guess I have a type A personality. I strive to be great. I truly believe that will keep me afloat throughout any economic cycle. This is not armageddon, but if it is I will be friggin MAD MAX....:) If you focus on only the bad and dwell on it you may go down with the ship. My focus is how to get on the other boat thats staying afloat, and finding the guy with the good pot....:D

#291 Lazlo

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Posted 07 December 2008 - 01:20 PM

It doesn't take a rocket scientist to know that i'm a little negative. Anyone here or wherever that knows me, knows i'm a little negative. But that being said, i'm not one that lets optimism get in the way of my thought process either. Day after day I hear people say that we're in a bottoming process and that things should start to look better in the next few months, and then low and behold over a half a million people loose their jobs in November alone. The people you'll hear say that we've come close to a bottom are the ones heavily involved in the markets, going the wrong direction. Fine by me. I'm so sure that after this "Santa's rally" is over, markets are going down way further over the next year. I'm so sure of it that after this rally is over, i'm dumping my 401K. If that ain't puttin' your money where your mouth is, I don't know what it is. If i'm wrong, i'm wrong. But i'm not risking it. I think this market problem could go on for 2-3 decades and i'm not sticking around while my 401K gets pulverized. Hehehe.

#292 catdaddy

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Posted 07 December 2008 - 01:32 PM

Funky,

I too, tend to be negative- but only when I'm trying to stress REAL STRONGLY the value of everything you just said about preparing. You see, LOTS of folks won't see the straw coming until their personal camel falls over.

In another post I got REAL positive about the good that can come from this downturn. Soon I GOTTA write one outlining just how bad this can get- and why. If I scare just one person into doing what it takes to save his family some grief, hunger, or hard times, I'll gladly wear the badge of...

Mr. Doom and Gloom,

Catdaddy

An optomistic pessimist.

#293 thafunkyone

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Posted 07 December 2008 - 03:57 PM

Lazlo- I hear ya on the 401k. I have nothing in stocks right now. I'll gladly invest once things start making a turn for the better. While the value of a dollar moves, the value of an investment is much much more volatile. The one good thing coming (if you can call it good) is that the beating the dollar has taken has subsided. American money is actually worth a little more everywhere else! YAY!..:) I keep my money in safe places. Even commodities such as gold aren't a good place for me IMO as the gold, while partially based on weight, is also based on its form when investing- coins, bars, etc. I just don't know enough about that market to make an educated decision. I will hold on to my money until I see something is worth my investment and I have knowledge in the investment as well. Investing is gambling. I'm not much of a gambler, and when I am I like to know the odds AND the game.

In the immortal words of method man, 'Cash rules everything around me, CREAM get the money, dolla dolla bills ya'll!'

Catdaddy- I agree with you. We need to show the uneducated (or ignorant?) that while the news isn't always the best gauge there is something people need to take notice of. There is nothing wrong with trying to help a friend get a grasp. Better to err on the side of caution!

#294 Lazlo

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Posted 17 December 2008 - 08:54 AM

http://www.cnbc.com//id/29103328

Edited by Lazlo, 12 February 2009 - 04:59 PM.


#295 eatyualive

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Posted 17 March 2009 - 04:33 PM

cali is laying of 30,000 school teachers and employees. watching cnn. they showed job fairs at stadiums in washington dc and other areas. lines were rolling around the stadiums by the thousands. ive heard nothing but friends and family across the nation saying they are losing their jobs. in all fields. may be a general statement but fields like marketing, architecture, building, graphic design, engineering, medical, dental. you name it. even lawyers. my lawyer buddy even said some firms are staying afloat but others are being wiped out. even the oil industry is having issues. pipe has been bought up by all the big companies and now they are selling it higher than normal cost to smaller guys. they got so much of the market share on pipes for drilling that now the small guys have to pay the big prices. wow.

no confidence in our government or flawed system. think for yourselves.

no more big govnernment.

#296 TVCasualty

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Posted 17 March 2009 - 04:56 PM

cali is laying of 30,000 school teachers and employees.


Yeah, that's the ticket to recovery! Eviscerate our already inadequate public education... WTF? Is that some kind of insurance policy against long-term prosperity? ('cause who wants an educated workforce? Not me! Those smarty-pantses want a living wage 'n stuff and who can afford to pay someone that much these days?)

Well, maybe the Evangelicals will pick up the education slack (oh joy!), or rich Saudi Arabian sheiks can start funding Wahhabist Madrassas in California like has been so successful in Pakistan and Afghanistan.

#297 eatyualive

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Posted 17 March 2009 - 05:41 PM

Yeah, that's the ticket to recovery! Eviscerate our already inadequate public education... WTF? Is that some kind of insurance policy against long-term prosperity? ('cause who wants an educated workforce? Not me! Those smarty-pantses want a living wage 'n stuff and who can afford to pay someone that much these days?)

Well, maybe the Evangelicals will pick up the education slack (oh joy!), or rich Saudi Arabian sheiks can start funding Wahhabist Madrassas in California like has been so successful in Pakistan and Afghanistan.


no, the problem is number one.

california is 1st in the nation in car sales. every states largest income tax revenues comes from car sales. they get sales tax for government from this. with thousands of cars sitting on lots and in empty parking lots at the docks. their sales revenue has completely dissipated.

2nd, the money coming in from property taxes is steadily decreasing at an alarming rate due to foreclosures. since cali is number one in foreclosures they are hit first. i don't know much about cali politics but im sure they have a big government there. that means. they need a certain amount of tax base to pay government salaries. with everyone foreclosing, reality is the tax base is going to keep decreasing. what that entails is job loss everywhere. bc lower tax base means less people are using utilities such as power, water ect. this means those jobs will be lost as well.

in the end, you have fewer ppl trying to do the job of many people. the comapany i used to work with had 90 employees. they fired everyone and kept the big wigs. thats about 5 guys in an office the size for 90 people. these guys are so busy they can't even return email or phone calls. thats reality. they are all doing 20 peoples jobs.

as it stands, cali already cut 1 day a week off for all government employees. they also laid off tons of people in government already. and they put a halt on any new tax returns earlier than april. from what ive heard. they are really slow on their unemployment payments as well.

that state is being hit first hand. and if they don't legalize mj. it could mean disaster.

when the state level governments lose property tax revenue along with sales tax revenue. thats bad news. and im sure that doesn't even reflect the job loss yet. and this is happening all across our country right now.

so this is the tip of the iceberg. they are not firing people by choice but by necessity to lower their payroll fees. unfortunately, its education thats getting hit. im sure it will be all fields soon enough. thats my assumption though.

but in the end. everyone suffers. its sad, but really we need to reduce the size of the government bc thats the biggest burden on our people. that won't happen. as it is, we are increasing government. in the last 2 years the government has increased the largest it has in history something like 40%. don't quote me on the numbers.

#298 catdaddy

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Posted 18 March 2009 - 05:47 AM

I'll stand with my back to yours,

So neither of us has our backs to the wall. :bow:




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