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violence coming?


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#1 riseabovethought

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Posted 04 August 2012 - 02:05 PM

[h=1]Will the US Really Experience a Violent Upheaval in 2020?[/h][IMG]http://l3.yimg.com/bt/api/res/1.2/Z5.JelXUZ8zWnC6p4xZ8fQ--/YXBwaWQ9eW5ld3M7Zmk9Zml0O2g9Mjc-/http://media.zenfs.com/en_us/News/logo/livescience/livesci_logo_73.jpg[/IMG]By Natalie Wolchover | LiveScience.com – Fri, Aug 3, 2012

http://news.yahoo.com/us-really-experience-violent-upheaval-2020-162332158.html Circa 1870, the North fought the South in the Civil War. Half a century later, around 1920, worker unrest, racial tensions and anti-Communist sentiment caused another nationwide upsurge of violence. Then, 50 years later, the Vietnam War and Civil Rights Movement triggered a third peak in violent political, social and racial conflict. Fifty years after that will be 2020. If history continues to repeat itself, we can expect a violent upheaval in the United States in a few years.
It sounds like pseudoscience, but it's a published theory. "My model suggests that the next [peak in violence] will be worse than the one in 1970 because demographic variables such as wages, standards of living and a number of measures of intra-elite confrontation are all much worse this time," said Peter Turchin, an ecologist, evolutionary biologist and mathematician at the University of Connecticut.
Turchin has led the development of a field of study called "cliodynamics," in which scientists attempt to find meaningful patterns in history. The endeavor flies in the face of the traditional study of history, which assumes the countless variables interacting within a society lead to chaotic fluctuations in outcomes like violence and social unrest. Massimo Pigliucci, a philosopher of science at CUNY-Lehman College, said most historians believe that "the factors at play are so many and so variable that there is little reason to expect quasi-regular cycles, or a unified theory to explain them."
But Turchin argues there is order in the chaos after all. [Infographic: Cycles Violence in the U.S.]
In the new study, Turchin, who reported his results in the July issue of the Journal of Peace Research, compiled historical data about violent incidents in U.S. history between 1780 and 2010, including riots, terrorism, assassinations and rampages. The data indicates that a cycle of violence repeats itself every 50 years in America, like a wave that peaks in every other generation. This short-term cycle is superimposed over another, longer-term oscillation that repeats every 200 to 300 years. The slower waves in violence can either augment or suppress the 50-year peaks, depending on how the two cycles overlap.
The longer cycle is "the one which we understand much better, and it is a universal feature of all complex societies," Turchin told Life's Little Mysteries. From the Roman Empire to medieval France to ancient China, scholars have noted that societies swing between 100-150 years of relative peace and 100-150 years of conflict, and then back again. Only some societies exhibit the shorter-term, and less subtle, 50-year-long cycles of violence along the way — the Roman Empire, for one, and if Turchin's theory is correct, the United States as well.
Why 50-year cycles? Turchin explained that a surge of violence begins in the same way as a forest fire: explosively. After a period of escalation followed by sustained violence, citizens begin to "yearn for the return of stability and an end to fighting," he wrote in his paper. The prevailing social mood swings toward stifling the violence at all costs, and those who directly experienced the civil violence maintain the peace for about a human generation — 20 or 30 years. But the stability doesn't last.
Eventually, "the conflict-scarred generation dies off or retires, and a new cohort arises, people who did not experience the horrors of civil war and are not immunized against it. If the long-term social forces that brought about the first outbreak of internal hostilities are still operating, then the society will slide into the second civil war," he wrote. "As a result, periods of intense conflict tend to recur with a period of roughly two generations (40–60 years)."
Peaks occurred around 1870, 1920 and 1970. Confounding this pattern, there was no peak of U.S. violence in the 1820s. In fact, historians call it the "era of good feelings." Turchin explained that social variables such as wages and employment were "really excellent at that time, so there was no reason for any violence to get going." The cycle was skipped. [Do Recessions Increase Violent Crimes?]
But we might not be so lucky this time around. If Turchin's model is right, then the current polarization and inequality in American society will come to a head in 2020. "After the last eight years or so, notice how the discourse in our political class has become fragmented. It's really unprecedented for the last 100 years. So basically by all measures, there are social pressures for instability that are much worse than 50 years ago."
Pigliucci, who writes a well-known blog on pseudoscience and skeptical thinking, says that although he believes Turchin is "moving in the right direction" by applying mathematical models to history, in this case he might be seeing patterns in random data. Violence and other forms of social unrest undoubtedly vary over time within any give society, Pigliucci said, but most historians would say these fluctuations are random.
Pigliucci isn't convinced that the 50-year cycle of violence Turchin has identified in U.S. history reflects more than just a random fluctuation. "The database is too short: the entire study covers the period 1780-2010, a mere 230 years," Pigliucci wrote in an email. "You can fit at most four 50-year peaks and two secular ones. I just don't see how one could reasonably exclude that the observed pattern is random. But of course we would have to wait a lot longer to collect new data and find out."
Only time will tell if the cycle of U.S. violence holds true, and another telltale peak — or lack thereof — is only a few years away.

#2 MungoFungo

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Posted 04 August 2012 - 08:25 PM

Well then again.... Depends on what u call voilence.. THE STATE and the Government have been on a violent killing spree all acrosss the Entire Earth leaving piles and piles of dead corpses from Wounded Knee to Mai Lai Massace, the Atom Bomb...........

I don't want their Progees it TrIES TO KILL ME!!!

#3 mushmonkey

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Posted 04 August 2012 - 09:34 PM

:eusa_thin
This "cliodynamics" sounds a lot like the fictional predictive sociology from Issac Asimov's Foundation series in which Hari Seldon develops "psychohistory". http://en.wikipedia....ory_(fictional)

The notion of predictive sociology is certainly appealing for those who think that knowing the future might somehow give us influence over our destinies. I have my doubts. Then again, I am a big time sceptic. Just because something happened according to some perceived pattern of history is no predictor of what will happen tomorrow or over the next several decades. All that the researcher found was a pattern. Any numerologist could find the same; doesn't mean it's significant. Coincidence does not prove causality.

Edited by mushmonkey, 04 August 2012 - 09:41 PM.


#4 Myc

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Posted 06 August 2012 - 09:05 AM

I sometimes think that the goal of all this research could be this:

We manifest our own destiny. Our world reacts to the influence of our collective conscious and subconscious minds.

If we convince enough free-thinking people that they "conform" to a model.........or fit into a profile........
If we train free-thinking people that they are not free to think but rather, unconsciously conform to pattern "x" described by my research paper........
Essentially, through publishing my findings, I'm attempting to convince you that you conform to a pattern. I'm not telling you what to think. Rather, I'm encouraging you to begin thinking what you should be thinking.
Thank you
Carry on please.

#5 Yeshua

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Posted 06 August 2012 - 09:24 AM

I have a feeling that this is like a magic trick, tell the masses when they will revolt. And by the powers that be and our own blind following leads us to the reality.

It needs to happen before november.

End banks, throw out the "elected" leaders, get rid of NSA and all the rest of the redundancy, publish everything you find that is or was classified, and kill no one. We are fighting power, not people.

#6 cheetolay

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Posted 06 August 2012 - 09:59 AM

Well, if time is truly speeding up, then we should be about due for some form of violent upheaval anytime now. Stakes are high and the environment is prime. The 2020 rebellion will be east versus west for control of the country after the fed is taken down. thats, of course, if china hasnt taken over yet.

#7 squizzlix

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Posted 06 August 2012 - 11:52 AM

have you seen whats been happening in anaheim??
protesters have been black bagged and tossed into unmarked vans by our military.
there is video of a policeman unleashing his k9 on a woman holding her baby at a protest.
the NDAA is being exercised as we speak.
8 more years of this shit and there will be more than violence in 2020.

#8 McDozd

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Posted 06 August 2012 - 12:39 PM

have you seen whats been happening in anaheim??
protesters have been black bagged and tossed into unmarked vans by our military.
there is video of a policeman unleashing his k9 on a woman holding her baby at a protest.
the NDAA is being exercised as we speak.
8 more years of this shit and there will be more than violence in 2020.


Anaheim is one of the most corrupt PDs in the country.
Mungo put that very video up you are talking about.
There is also a video floating around out there that is a compilation of police killings in just this year.
All unjustified.
Ridiculous amount of them.
Surprise, surprise.. none of the murderers were even fired much less prosecuted.

#9 Yeshua

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Posted 06 August 2012 - 01:41 PM

Anyone ever see the movie Convoy?

I like how the whole movie is a blue print of how to win.
Just imagine, spontanious fluid like convoys headed out across america... systematicly locking up any and all who are corrupt and hold seats of power.
There would have to be a synthesis of military help and eduacating, so troops understand that it is a lawful purging of corruption. Even more, an actual good cause for them to defend, our freedom.

Of course there would have to be a mass broadcasting of PSA's Informing everyone of the intentions of their fellow americans.

#10 riseabovethought

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Posted 07 August 2012 - 01:41 PM

Anyone ever see the movie Convoy?

I like how the whole movie is a blue print of how to win.
Just imagine, spontanious fluid like convoys headed out across america... systematicly locking up any and all who are corrupt and hold seats of power.
There would have to be a synthesis of military help and eduacating, so troops understand that it is a lawful purging of corruption. Even more, an actual good cause for them to defend, our freedom.

Of course there would have to be a mass broadcasting of PSA's Informing everyone of the intentions of their fellow americans.


the trucker movie?

#11 Yeshua

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Posted 07 August 2012 - 02:08 PM

Yeah man, watch it and pay attention to the dialoge between bear and duck.

Bunch of great metaphors through out that movie.

#12 TinnDaddy

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Posted 07 August 2012 - 02:48 PM

Things will change, but not through violent upheaval.
Once all those right-wing baby boomers hit retirement age and realize that their generation has no retirement to live off of
That's when they will miraculously be for the big government to take care of them. That same big government that they have loathed all these years.
They will realize that the big companies never did give a crap about them and the only way those big companies would ever help their employees is if the government forces them to do it.
It won't be a violent upheaval. It will be old people being the largest voting class in America voting for the congress and senate that will best represent their needs.

#13 riseabovethought

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Posted 07 August 2012 - 03:38 PM

It won't be a violent upheaval. It will be old people being the largest voting class in America voting for the congress and senate that will best represent their needs.


Awwww, I get sentimental sometimes too. Thats cute. But lets be real here. We only get to choose between the folks they put before us. They've been vetted already and our little vote is insignificant. Oh, and Santa isnt real either, nor the Easter Bunny, but we pretend for the kids, dont we?

It'll be violent because they wont make things right any other way. It only gets violent when its the last option and its rapidly becoming the last option. I respectfully disagree Tindaddy.

#14 Alder Logs

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Posted 07 August 2012 - 03:55 PM

Those who make peaceful revolution impossible
will make violent revolution inevitable.





.

#15 mushmonkey

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Posted 07 August 2012 - 04:31 PM

There is way too much police brutality already, but I'm afraid it will get much worse.

The USA is in transition and I firmly believe this will lead to more loss of privacy, more LEO brutality on citizens, and more violent crimes against minority groups by citizens on other citizens of religious minorities, sexual minorities, and racial minorities.

All of this will be exacerbated by shortages in drinkable water, shortages of gasoline, and high rates of unemployment.

It's not the end of the world, but it may be the end of the USA as we know it.

#16 TVCasualty

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Posted 09 August 2012 - 07:58 AM

Clearly, the violence isn't "coming," it's already here. It hasn't yet risen to levels that overwhelm civil society but it's growing and will get there eventually (but long before 2020).

But as to the study of historical cycles of violence, it reads like a conclusion in search of evidence (that is, it's science in reverse). I mean, how the hell can he go from social unrest in the 1920's to Vietnam and blithely skip over the apparently-insignificant uptick in violence that we now call WORLD WAR II?!? Guess it didn't fit the pattern, LOL...

#17 riseabovethought

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Posted 05 April 2013 - 01:41 PM

Im watching this movie called 'The Flaw' which demonstrates pretty well how similar things are now economically with what was happening in 1929
A bubble is about to burst, and I think it will be a sortof bankrupsty of the US citizenry, not big business which is protected (short term anyway)
Credit is over the top, spending is over the top, and this bubble has all the ingredients for a pop! Anyhoo, pop it, and things'll get violent, IMHO.
The question is.. what do we do then?

#18 bugs

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Posted 05 April 2013 - 01:59 PM

It won't be a violent upheaval. It will be old people being the largest voting class in America voting for the congress and senate that will best represent their needs.

Don't underestimate us!
armored wheelchair.jpeg

#19 MYndsetNebula

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Posted 05 April 2013 - 04:12 PM

Patterns emerge, we will meet crossroads, the thing is what paths will we chose what lessons will we have learned from, what will we take forth. I agree on the notion that this information appears as ways to sway the public one way or another, in that case then should it not be our duty to try and focus what information we choose to follow, I do not mean censorship but rather accountability, change does not have to mean violence, perhaps this go round we won't take the easy road of destruction and rebuild, I feel as though with this path taken there is a sort of collective memory loss, in that we forget all that was important and start the path towards the same mess again, where as with proper foresight we can do better and carry all forward. For if we allow it to become the path of violence will we be able to live with ourselves of the aftermath?

[Direct Link]


[Direct Link]



#20 Spooner

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Posted 05 April 2013 - 04:39 PM

Don't underestimate us!
[ATTACH=CONFIG]303647[/ATTACH]


Hery Bugsie, got a website where I can order one of those chairs on line? (Strictly for microsocpy study of course.)
Medicare ought to cover it.

For less than 5 minutes of your time, the following vid addresses the core question of all revolutions. It starts a bit slow so don't bother if you can not sit through the first 2-3 minutes of introduction.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GC49xp-zHPg

Peace and Love folks, carry on...




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