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Communal climate change discussion


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#21 BlackPeter17

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Posted 10 April 2014 - 07:47 PM

It's also crazy that there has been scientific documentation of the warming trends and correlation to fossil fuels since the 1960s however the same people who sold to the public that smoking ciggerettes don't cause cancer (first expierement performed 1930s in Germany) are the ones confusion people about global warming. Just a few days ago I spoke to somebody about ciggerettes and cancer and they said cancer is genetic, my father smoked till he was 80 and didn't get cancer....

How did this happen? Yes cancer can be genetic but most genetic causes are hypothesis only a few have been actually proven... Cigarets cause cancer, global warming is real.
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#22 Juthro

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Posted 10 April 2014 - 07:51 PM

I’m not saying the models are inaccurate, I believe they accurately figure the information that is put in to them.   What I’m saying is that when talking about global warming, the way things interact with one another (ocean currents, water density (salinity), water temperature, air currents, ect..) is still largely unknown and there may well be other variables that we have not even considered at all.  Models work fine as long as they get all the info, and that info is all correct.


Edited by Juthro, 10 April 2014 - 09:30 PM.

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#23 BlackPeter17

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Posted 10 April 2014 - 08:01 PM

indeed! I'm with you, clouds were fucking everything up for a long time.  there is minimal perdicibility and so difficult to track.  but the new cloud models that have come out are pretty damn accurate for a certain perticular area at a time haha! the biggest unknown that I can think of right now is the water vapor.  

 

however I'm saying the models are inaccurate as they are very basic, however they teach valuable lessons regarding the components that they are modeling like the bending frequencies of CO2 and bond saturation effects, also accurate climate increases with Co2 doubling.  


Edited by Direwolf13, 10 April 2014 - 08:05 PM.

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#24 Scratch

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Posted 10 April 2014 - 11:28 PM

Climate change is minor issue compared to...

 

 

Population_curve.png

 

... now there's a real problem.



 


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#25 August West

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Posted 10 April 2014 - 11:37 PM

I'm so excited now! I'm sorry I've been distracted but I have a lot of wonderful stuff to share! I going to throughly read everything here and post a bunch of cool links.
from what I know, the unknowns are unknown. Geoengineering definitely is expensive and will have reprocussions. Right now we have to Focus on a world wide treaty cap and trade system and taxation for every molecule of co2 emitted. Like ASAP. How are we going to do it? That's why we r talking right now! We gotta put our heads together on this. Be back with fun stuff later :) I'm not disappointed anymore! I'm glad to hear voices, I thought I was alone over hear. I'm really thankful for every participant in this thread right now.

End taxes which fund the military, subsidize big agriculture, subsidize the petroleum industry, compulsory government schooling and a list too long to mention. Tackle the very real and unquestionable problems of air and water and ground pollution. Perhaps then, some room can be made for a discussion on a carbon tax (which will flow to who, exactly?) and implementing a dubious "cap and trade" scheme can take place.
 

Climate change is minor issue compared to...


attachicon.gifPopulation_curve.png


... now there's a real problem.

Care to expand on that idea?


Edited by August West, 10 April 2014 - 11:52 PM.

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#26 BlackPeter17

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Posted 11 April 2014 - 06:04 AM

Population growth is not a problem for developed nations. It's the undeveloped nations that are out of control, and those are the nations that will be hit hardest by climate change. The mid lattitudes. The nations who have not had the luxury of burning fossil fuels and the progression that comes with it.

http://m.youtube.com...h?v=fTznEIZRkLg


August west the co2 tax will be applied to everyone in the world. This is the only way that green options will be at the same price as fossil fuel options. This means how much u drive your car you get a tax, this means the car companies will have to pay a tax for burning fossil fuels to make their cars, this means anybody burning co2 will have to pay extra for it world wide.

Currently there is no charge for co2, as we release it to the atmosphere we are getting further away from ever being able to stop it as the cost to fix this problem is out of control. Where money will come from to fix this problem is an issue, therefore every individual, and every company world wide burning fossil fuels gets a tax. The money from the tax goes towards fixing the problem while the market stabilizes over the years. Fossil free will be the same price as taxed co2 products. Soon then greener will be cheeper.

Coal is the largest contributor right now for greenhouse gasses. The reason it's so hot is because it's so cheep. So cheep and Dirty! If it were more expensive to burn then other options will be considered.

Just incase anybody doesn't know what the next step our government is planning on taking along with china. The talk to bandaide the situation is to invest money in equipment to capture the co2 before it is released, then bury it deep in the ground, for somebody else to deal with when there is a better solution. Are you fucking kidding me? One of those storage centers blows up all that gas up at once? Nuculear powers plants have the problem frequently. Disastrous.

The only two countries not signing the treaty are us and china and it's a competition. I'm unsure of why the us did not sign it, but I think it wasent "fair enough". How is far even in this conversation. We are talking about fossil fuels here, you know the natural reasource that we steal from other countries fucking their water supplies, and minimally rembursing them so we can have it meanwhile these countries don't even have hospitals...

The only solution to the problem is to stop burning fossil fuels completely world wide. This needs to happen over the next 5 years. If you run the most ran infrared model I put up, you can change the value of co2 in the ATM. If you raise it to say 500 or 550 (which will be near doubled since industrial revolution of ((280ppm)). You will notice band saturation occurring and can see the change in amount of heat released from the earth into space as well as see the ground temp change.

Once you raise the co2 levels to that doubling point a positive feedback system reaches a tipping point. More co2 = increased ground temp = water vapor from evaporation = increased ground temperature. Water is a perfect black body and is a stronger green house gas then methane or co2.

Methane is also stronger per molecule than Co2 however the value is relatively stable, and super low. Becoming a vegetarian will no longer assist in reduction of methane after we convert from coal to natural gas (emitting methane). This is why these "Greener energies" is not a solution it's a temp fix that costs money. All that money should be invested in a green energy like algae. Stop fucking with us and fix this problem!!!!!!!!!!!

As a community I feel we need to do more work in the area of reducing the footprint while growing. A lot of the info we have out there utilizes a lot of plastic and wastes a lot of reasorces as they were cheep when trailed. As the price increase from price if plastic going up then the cost to grow will go up. It makes more sense to grow and sustain, this is what we need to teach in the future. I feel like as a community, if we want to spread and grow we need to be part of the sulotion. Preservation of species will be a must. Think about all the exotic mushroom species that will die off and become extinct as the temp increases 5 deg c.

Edited by Direwolf13, 11 April 2014 - 06:06 AM.


#27 BlackPeter17

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Posted 11 April 2014 - 06:09 AM

Climate change is minor issue compared to...


Population_curve.png

... now there's a real problem.




The issue here is not population growth as more economic growth. Currently without a co2 tax in place any economic growth occurs from polluting. Greenhouse gasses were down during the recession we just had.

#28 August West

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Posted 11 April 2014 - 03:19 PM

August west the co2 tax will be applied to everyone in the world. This is the only way that green options will be at the same price as fossil fuel options.

Let's just grant, for the sake of discussion, that computer models can accurately describe something as complex as global climate. Let us also grant (though I don't agree) that taxes, in general, are something that must be paid and therefor, we will have a tax system - again, in general.

As I stated above, carbon taxes are NOT the only way that "green" options will be leveled. The petroleum industry and all it's tentacles (the biggest being industrial agriculture) are subsidized by the U.S. military. They are also essentially subsidized by corporate welfare and a completely ridiculous tax system which allows the largest corporations and generally largest emitters of carbon (and far more pernicious problem of pollution) to do their work, not only tax free but often times receiving tax benefits. End all of the aforementioned tax payments, subsidies and loopholes and I'd wager that the energy playing field would begin to level rather quickly.

This means how much u drive your car you get a tax, this means the car companies will have to pay a tax for burning fossil fuels to make their cars, this means anybody burning co2 will have to pay extra for it world wide.

So I get punished because I don't live in an urban area?


Currently there is no charge for co2, as we release it to the atmosphere we are getting further away from ever being able to stop it as the cost to fix this is out of control. Where money will come from to fix this problem is an issue, therefore every individual, and every company world wide burning fossil fuels gets a tax. The money from the tax goes towards fixing the problem while the market stabilizes over the years. Fossil free will be the same price as taxed co2 products. Soon then greener will be cheeper.

How does this tax system work? Who oversees it? Where does the money go, who has oversight and what does that infrastructure look like?

I have many other problems with this but I'll leave it there for now, as that is plenty to respond to.

#29 BlackPeter17

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Posted 11 April 2014 - 07:10 PM

AugustW thank you so much for keeping this convo alive :)  I am so happy to be able to continue to discuss this and also am very confiedent that I can help this situation, and answer those particular questions with correct info with citations.  I have so much resources available for the next couple weeks, if I can't thoroughly explain something I can ask somebody who can and get back to this thread.  

 

as far as the models that I'm referring to in this thread some are more meaningful to me than others so specificity would help to explain the reliability.  

 

The tax would be world wide as part of a treaty.  so far many countries are on board except the top 2 emitters US and China. the biggest problem is that it will slow economic growth by taxing co2.  To answer your comment/question regarding the tax situation No you would not be punished for living in rural areas you would pay a fair price to burn fossil fuels.  a price that is equivalent to a non-co2 emitting form of transportation.  if all options were equal in price the greener option would be a no brainer.  the money received from the tax will go directly into funding world wide solutions to this issue.  the amount of money its going to take to fix this problem is so enormous that its bester to just put it off and not think about it.  this tax money gives a pool to take from but the hope is as soon as the playing field is level nobody will be paying the tax because accommodations will have been made.  

 

I'm going to look into a book to get some specifics but I have great current up to date demographics of Co2 emission for our country I just gotta find them.  but if it were a world wide treaty the government would be paying for the military emissions, as would any country in the world.  no exceptions.  everybody is responsible for their own emissions.  

 

I will get back with more thoroughness, however I wanted to keep the ball rolling!


Edited by Direwolf13, 11 April 2014 - 07:39 PM.


#30 Erkee

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Posted 11 April 2014 - 08:43 PM

i'm fastidiously ignored when i say it looks like an ice age coming.
but maybe i'm a bit balmy.

i stopped trusting data when i discovered that useful information has always been capped and traded.
and because good data is impossible to acquire, i predict that good forecasting must therefore also be impossible.

data points disconnect information, 'averages' clear-cut complexity.
yes we can deal with these things, with our simple minds.
and yes we get a somewhat-picture and simple-understanding of gross interactions within this scale of reality, and yes reality seems to iterate at different scales, some more pattern than others, some more digital, some more flow.
and yes there are genius who fathom deeply.

i still think it's a crap shoot to answer to the global warming issue.
and 'maybe too' there are great energies deployed on proiects that we are not aware of?
at the level of pion we only get a feel for these things.
higher levels of access get an 'educated' view and that may suffice.
higher still and we may feel in control of something.
higher and higher into skittish paranoia.
and the glimmerings of endless possibility if you will.

this is not to say that i don't put ALL effort into reducing my footprint and learning rapidly to simplify.
i see this as a true responsibility of everyone to the extent of their conscientiousness and connection to all.
some must repeat at their level of activity many times before evaluating and discovering a step in the dark.
but pretence and ignorance seem to lead somehow to extinction of mind and continuous habit.

i am always looking for simpler ways to do more with less, ultimately do less with less, until i have no effect at all.
that would be a balancing point.
from there i would hope to do something that was enriching and harmonious with the life around.
we are life.. striving to break free of our patterns, to become 'more alive', and too with 'drugs' more conscious.

the data points are mesmerising.
i blur and wait for patterns to emerge.
a layer of skin sloughs off.

sorry, long post.
is there time?

Edited by Erkee, 11 April 2014 - 09:03 PM.

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#31 BlackPeter17

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Posted 11 April 2014 - 08:47 PM

plenty of time my brother, plenty of time



#32 BlackPeter17

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Posted 11 April 2014 - 08:50 PM

this is pretty cool right?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n0mupl4FZsQ&playnext=1&list=PL4C0552FC34F7E5AC&feature=results_main



#33 BlackPeter17

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Posted 11 April 2014 - 08:53 PM

http://cloudappreciationsociety.org

 

http://nsidc.org/soac

 

 

 

this one is great if your spun

http://earth.nullsch...3=0.00,0.00,736

 

this one is super cool

http://www.esrl.noaa...ds/history.html


Edited by Direwolf13, 11 April 2014 - 08:54 PM.

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#34 BlackPeter17

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Posted 11 April 2014 - 08:56 PM

it is important to note that forecasting weather and climate prediction are completely different from each other.  forecasting weather is very tricky and difficulty over 24-48 hours due to the unknowns and variables.  however climate prediction is actually more accurate than you may think and has a much much larger range of time to cover.  



#35 BlackPeter17

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Posted 11 April 2014 - 09:08 PM

on the topic of ice ages:

the most recent ice sheets were caused by a volcanic eruption kicking up dust particles reflecting the sun light.  with out the incoming sunlight to balance out the system the heat of the earth was lost to space.  

 

the previous ice ages were caused by vibrations of the earth changing the tilt, and also slight changes in earths orbit.  it is very possible in the scene of things that the earth could very well change its orbit and knock us back into frozen earth.  Times will be like billions of years ago…  where I stand right now was once covered by meters  and meters of ice.



#36 Erkee

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Posted 11 April 2014 - 09:15 PM

everything diverges from this point forward.. says me. lol

 

hey, @dire: do you have a link to the 'actual' patterns for world vapour and percipitation 2010 to compare against your post#32 simulation?

 

hmm, that might be a bothersome request.



#37 BlackPeter17

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Posted 11 April 2014 - 09:30 PM

I can figure something out if that will facilitate your understanding! I'm not sure if your familiar with ncar but they are legit.

I used that particular link in my development of understanding things as a way to visualize the coriolis effect, but it serves other purposes.

Just give me some time, I get it for u. I gotta first address the stuff brought up by August west then if you want to work on h2ov + precipitation then that's where we will go next!

#38 BlackPeter17

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Posted 11 April 2014 - 09:32 PM

Actually I'm remembering the that this is pretty accurate if u notice the moisture being brought up from the east coast us and then dropped off in england I'm not 100% - this is on the fly but I think in 2010 England had lots of flooding.

#39 Erkee

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Posted 11 April 2014 - 10:44 PM

ya, thought it might be something like that.

it's ok, don't toil to prove or disprove.

i can proiect the differences by seeing the resolution, generation, speed and strength of effects.

there will be simularities and differences of course.

generally there may be shadows and overlapping/coincident behavior.

timing would differ slightly too.

combining the general stability of certain patterns and proiecting based on other 'known unknowns' there may be good verisimulitude and thus a level of short term predictability at this seemingly larger scale of time.

 

anything for 2014/2015?..



#40 August West

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Posted 11 April 2014 - 11:42 PM

i'm fastidiously ignored when i say it looks like an ice age coming.
but maybe i'm a bit balmy.

Agreed. The science on this seems to be perpetually ignored. Add the lack of possible attribution of that big fucking flaming ball in the sky and the questions become endless.

Far too much assuredness in this thread imo - especially when it results in a "tax" grab.

Even though I hacked off 95% of your post, in my quoting, great post Erkee and good to see you. Fwiw, nobody should take this as Erkee endorsing my position ;)




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